Today's ADP Jobs Report shows 99,000 private sector jobs added in August. Context is key as seasonality impacts results.
Sectors & Industries
September 5, 2024
Private Sector Employment Increased by 99,000 Jobs in August; Annual Pay was Up 4.8%. Compared to previous months, the numbers can seem low. But context is critical.
In 2016, the U.S. averaged 187,000 jobs per month, but look closer, and you’ll see how unpredictable it was. May only added 24,000, while June skyrocketed with 271,000 new jobs. August stayed moderate at 151,000. The same kind of swings happened in 2012 – an average of 178,000 per month, but April added 133,000, and May dipped to just 92,000. June followed with a weak 45,000.
In 2013, the average climbed to 194,000, but again, not every month hit big. July saw just 96,000, while December picked up with 164,000. These fluctuations show how much job growth can vary, even in a single year.
The best months for job additions in the United States are typically February, March, April, May, October, and November. February and March often see strong job growth as the economy rebounds from seasonal layoffs following the holiday season, with industries like construction, professional services, and healthcare leading the way as companies start new projects for the year.
April and May are also strong months for job additions, as the improving weather boosts hiring in sectors such as construction, tourism, retail, and hospitality, which ramp up operations to prepare for the summer season. Similarly, October and November are robust months for job growth due to the increase in hiring in preparation for the holiday shopping season. During these months, sectors like retail, transportation, and warehousing add significant numbers of jobs to meet the higher consumer demand. These months typically see job gains ranging from 150,000 to over 250,000, depending on the overall economic climate.
While today's ADP Jobs Report is important, it's just one data indicator. Tomorrow Non-farm payroll report is more important, but even then, August is usually a slow month for job creation so we can't panic over these numbers.
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