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Capex Collapse Confirms A Confidence Recession

J.B. Hunt, FedEx, Microsoft slash spending—corporate capex collapse points to confidence-led economic slowdown.

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The clearest signal of a slowdown wasn’t in CPI or payrolls—it was in capex. JB Hunt, FedEx, and Microsoft all pulled back on investment, and only 26% of CEOs now plan to increase spending, down from 56% just months ago.

Powell’s warnings of weaker growth and elevated inflation reinforced the shift: companies see no reason to expand if demand is weakening and the Fed won’t step in. Soft spending turns into weak guidance, weak guidance hits earnings, and earnings pressure jobs. This is how recessions often start— with a slow erosion of confidence.

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