The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell -0.1% in December, capping a 1.3% decline in the second half of 2024. This continued deterioration signals that the economy is rapidly losing momentum. Key contributors to the decline include weak consumer confidence, falling new orders, higher unemployment claims, and a slowdown in homebuilding—all of which are historically reliable indicators of an impending economic downturn.
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Although government spending and industrial production provided some stability, the LEI’s six-month growth rate remains in contraction territory, reinforcing fears that the U.S. is edging closer to a recession. If job growth continues to slow and investment contracts further, the economy could officially enter a downturn within six to nine months.
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