Redwire (RDW) +30% — Missile Defense Contract Award

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Redwire shares surged 30% in a single session after the company was selected by the Missile Defense Agency for the $151 billion, multi-vendor SHIELD IDIQ program supporting U.S. homeland defense. While awards under the contract will be competed over time, inclusion positions Redwire for potential billion-dollar opportunities, sharply improving long-term revenue visibility and reinforcing its role in defense and space infrastructure.

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Liberty Energy (LBRT) +17% — Dividend Increase

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Liberty Energy jumped 17% after announcing a 13% increase in its quarterly cash dividend to $0.09 per share, beginning in Q4 2025. The hike signals confidence in cash flow durability and capital discipline, particularly as energy markets stabilize, and improves the stock’s appeal to income-focused investors.

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Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) +15% — Share Repurchase Program

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Merchants Bancorp rallied 15% after its board approved a $100 million stock repurchase program, running through December 31, 2027. The buyback represents a meaningful return of capital, highlights balance-sheet strength, and supports earnings per share through reduced share count amid a volatile regional banking backdrop.

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Tesla — The AI dream keeps the stock afloat, but the core business is still under pressure

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Tesla went into earnings with investors increasingly framing it less as a car company and more as a long-dated AI, robotics, and autonomy platform. That narrative mattered because the core automotive business has been under strain for some time — slowing deliveries, heavier discounting, and margin compression as competition intensifies and consumer incentives fade.
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The earnings report didn’t reverse that reality. Revenue fell year over year, vehicle deliveries declined, and free cash flow dropped sharply as spending ramped. Even with a modest earnings beat, the underlying picture was clear: selling cars is getting harder, not easier, and near-term profitability is being sacrificed to fund long-term bets.
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Where Tesla surprised was in reinforcing the AI optionality investors want to believe in. Energy storage delivered record results, with Megapack deployments accelerating and profits hitting new highs. More importantly for the stock, Tesla disclosed a $2 billion investment in xAI, formally tying its future to Musk’s broader AI ecosystem. That move reframed the quarter — not as an auto slowdown, but as a stepping stone toward robots, robotaxis, and physical AI.
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That framing helped the stock rebound after an initial selloff. Investors weren’t buying the earnings; they were buying the strategy. The problem is timing. Robotics, Optimus, and large-scale robotaxi deployment remain expensive, uncertain, and years away from meaningful cash generation, while the automotive business is still what pays the bills today.
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Tesla didn’t deliver a clean earnings turnaround. Instead, it leaned harder into the future to offset present-day weakness. As with Intel, the stock isn’t trading on what the company is earning now — it’s trading on whether management can bridge the gap between an increasingly pressured core business and ambitious, capital-intensive bets that haven’t yet proven they can scale profitably.