Markets reopened Monday still buzzing from Trump’s $4.2T “Big Beautiful Bill”—but the post-holiday rally didn’t last long. What followed was a dose of trade anxiety. On Truth Social, Trump published formal tariff threat letters to Japan and South Korea, confirming 25%–40% duties set to hit Aug. 1. By midweek, that list had grown to include copper (50%), Canada (35%), and rumors of similar moves on pharma and autos. Traders, who just days earlier had been relieved by the tariff delay to August, suddenly found themselves repricing risk—again.
‍

Stocks stumbled as momentum cracked and Fed speak turned hawkish. Rate-cut hopes, which had been clinging to soft private payrolls and low inflation, faded after several FOMC members signaled caution. Reports late in the week that Jerome Powell may consider stepping down only added to the policy fog. Meanwhile, earnings season kicked off with Delta Airlines offering a rare dose of optimism—booking strength and upward guidance—though broader expectations for Q2 remain tepid.
‍

Across asset classes, the story was different. Bitcoin broke above $118K, silver surged past $38 for the first time since 2011, and copper hit record highs as traders scrambled to front-run tariffs. Oil climbed on expectations of a Trump “Russia speech” and second-half supply distortions, while bond yields rose on the long end, steepening the curve. Even gold caught a bid, extending its rebound off the 50DMA. If last quarter was the melt-up, this one might be the volatility.
‍

Last week marked the collision of Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill with his reloaded trade war. Add a hawkish Fed and fading rate-cut euphoria, and Q3 is shaping up to be anything but quiet.

‍

‍