MP Materials surged 50% after a major DoD deal secured U.S. rare earth supply and long-term growth.
Sectors & Industries
July 11, 2025
Table of Contents
MP Materials Corp. (MP), the company behind America’s only integrated rare earth mining and processing facility, has become the center of attention following a massive rally in its stock price. On July 10, 2025, shares surged over 50% after the company announced a multibillion-dollar strategic partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). This agreement not only solidifies MP’s critical role in national security but also positions it as a long-term growth story in the rare earths space.
The dramatic one-day jump followed the announcement of a DoD-led investment that includes stock purchases, preferred equity, and long-term procurement agreements. MP stock is now trading at its highest level since April 2022.
This isn’t just an investment, it’s a long-term industrial policy. MP Materials plans to construct a new rare earth magnet manufacturing facility called the "10X Facility," backed by a $1 billion loan from JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs. That facility is expected to produce 10,000 metric tons annually and will come online by 2028. The U.S. government, through the DoD, will be the guaranteed buyer of the entire output for at least ten years.
In addition to new construction, the DoD is also issuing a $150 million loan to expand heavy rare earth separation capabilities at MP's existing Mountain Pass facility in California. This ensures that MP can process not only light rare earths like NdPr but also heavier and often more scarce elements used in military and clean energy technologies.
Despite recent momentum, MP still reports negative earnings. In Q1 2025, the company posted a non-GAAP adjusted net loss of $0.12 per share, slightly better than Wall Street expectations of a $0.13 loss. Revenue came in at $60.8 million, missing the $64.4 million estimate. The next earnings call is scheduled for July 31, with analysts expecting a deeper loss of $0.20 per share.
MP's financial performance has been under pressure due to low rare earth prices, largely manipulated by Chinese state-backed producers. However, the price floor baked into the DoD contract could turn MP's financials around as early as next year, particularly once magnet sales start contributing directly to revenue.
The timing of this deal is no coincidence. China halted rare earth exports to the U.S. in March 2025 amid rising geopolitical tensions, cutting off a supply chain that had previously seen MP send more than 80% of its ore to China for processing. In April, MP announced it would no longer ship materials to China, putting immediate pressure on its sales channels.
The new deal shifts MP’s trajectory toward full independence. The DoD is not just a shareholder but a partner in rebuilding America’s rare earth supply chain. This government backing makes MP one of the most strategically important companies in the materials sector.
Prior to the DoD announcement, analyst price targets averaged just $29.29, with a high of $42.00 and a low of $18.00. Since the deal, several analysts have revised their targets upward. Baird increased its target from $30 to $38, while BMO raised theirs to $29. However, Deutsche Bank remains conservative, holding its target at $12.50.
Despite these mixed views, sentiment on social media and trading forums is overwhelmingly bullish. Investors are comparing MP to early-stage defense contractors, noting the parallels in revenue stability once long-term government contracts are signed.
On the technical side, MP has broken through a long-term downtrend and bullish patterns such as a falling wedge and Fibonacci support levels. With the RSI still below overbought territory and volume more than doubling on the day of the announcement, traders see further upside potential.
Even with government support, risks remain. MP still faces significant short interest about 25.84% of its float. Some insiders have also sold shares, reflecting either profit-taking or skepticism about long-term profitability. Regulatory uncertainties, especially regarding ongoing Congressional support for the Defense Production Act funding, could also impact MP’s prospects.
Moreover, while the DoD is now the largest shareholder, China-based Shenghe Resources still owns about 8% of MP. The balance of influence between U.S. and Chinese interests may come under scrutiny, especially in the context of national security.
MP Materials now finds itself at the crossroads of industrial revival and national defense. Its transformation from a supplier to China into a U.S.-centric producer with long-term government contracts could set a precedent for other strategic resource companies.
The company’s long-term success will depend on executing its expansion plans, managing geopolitical risk, and delivering on the promise of domestic rare earth independence. For now, the DoD deal marks a pivotal moment not just for MP, but for the future of critical minerals in the United States.
MP Materials’ stock didn’t just move 50% in a day by chance it moved because of a specific, high-impact event: a multi-billion-dollar strategic contract with the U.S. Department of Defense. These kinds of catalysts government partnerships, major contract wins, policy shifts, or supply chain pivots often lead to outsized returns. But they’re not always easy to catch in real time.
That’s where platforms like LevelFields AI come in.
LevelFields scans and analyzes thousands of events every minute to detect actionable patterns and trigger alerts for investors. It flags key developments like:
Each of these scenarios is statistically modeled based on historical outcomes so traders and investors can see not just what happened, but what similar events have meant for stock prices in the past.
For a stock like MP, which is heavily influenced by defense policy, national security, and trade developments, event-driven tools like LevelFields provide valuable context. Instead of reacting late to headlines, investors using LevelFields can get ahead of the move, often within minutes of public disclosure.
Whether you’re tracking stocks in critical materials, biotech, fintech, or energy, having an AI-powered alert system can help you cut through noise and focus on what actually moves the market.
Join LevelFields now to be the first to know about events that affect stock prices and uncover unique investment opportunities. Choose from events, view price reactions, and set event alerts with our AI-powered platform. Don't miss out on daily opportunities from 6,300 companies monitored 24/7. Act on facts, not opinions, and let LevelFields help you become a better trader.
AI scans for events proven to impact stock prices, so you don't have to.
LEARN MORE