Oracle is now down over 35%, and Wall Street is finally saying the quiet part out loud.
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Barclays warned this month that Oracle’s cash flow doesn’t come close to covering the data-center expansion it promised — especially its multibillion-dollar deal with OpenAI. The bank noted rising interest costs, deteriorating coverage ratios, and “structurally insufficient cash generation” to fund the AI buildout without massive new borrowing.
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That is exactly the kind of strain we called out in our November 2nd report:
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AI has shifted from an equity boom to a debt-funded construction project.
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Oracle is the first place where that pressure is showing up.

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Nvidia, Palantir, and CoreWeave Are Softening Too

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The slowdown isn’t isolated:
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• Nvidia has started to slip as investors question how long GPU budgets can keep rising at this pace and as more supply comes online.
• Palantir — Burry’s largest put position — delivered huge numbers (63% revenue growth, 121% U.S. commercial growth, raised full-year guidance), yet the stock is still drifting off its highs because expectations had been pushed so far ahead of reality that even great results weren’t “good enough.”
• CoreWeave has sold off sharply after a 29% weekly drop, with investors now focused on its rising AI data-center spending, debt load, and reliance on a handful of big customers.
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These companies are all tied to the same cycle of borrow → build → buy more chips → repeat.
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When financing gets harder, the loop slows.

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Why This Matters: AI Powered 75% of the S&P’s Gains

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Since late 2022, nearly all index performance came from AI megacaps.
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So even mild weakness in the leaders hits everything:
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• The market
• The bond market
• The companies building the power grid
• The firms supplying cooling, transformers, and industrial equipment
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In other words:
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If AI slows, the entire “AI-driven economy” slows with it.

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The AI Debt Loop Is Now Being Stress-Tested

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This is exactly what we outlined earlier this month:
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Nvidia → OpenAI → Oracle → CoreWeave → back to Nvidia
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all financed with debt, long-term commitments, and circular revenue flows.
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The Oracle decline — amplified by Barclays’ warning — is the first real signal that the cycle isn't frictionless.

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