Not long ago, a U.S. recession was seen as very likely. But with inflation cooling, earnings growth holding up, and rate cut hopes possibly returning, forecasts are shifting. Soft-landing optimism has replaced hard-landing fears. Then came a stark reminder of the risks still lurking: Moody’s stripped the U.S. of its last AAA rating, warning of unsustainable deficits and mounting interest costs.

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With debt now over $36 trillion and projected to hit 134% of GDP by 2035, the downgrade shows deep fiscal cracks—just as investors race back into risk. It raises a bigger question: is this another macro alarm investors will ignore… or the spark that breaks momentum? If history is an indicator, investors may embrace the "sell in May and go away" mantra of old.