Sex workers, delivery drivers, and bartenders are spotting recession signs before economists—consumer behavior is shifting fast.
Sectors & Industries
May 15, 2025
Table of Contents
Traditional economists look to inflation data, interest rates, and GDP to determine where the economy is headed. But there’s another set of indicators—quirky, unconventional, and street-level—that are starting to flash warning signs of a slowdown. From strip clubs to delivery apps, here’s what some of the most unexpected corners of the economy are revealing about consumer behavior in 2025.
Most economic analyses focus on lagging indicators. But the earliest signs of trouble often come from industries closest to day-to-day consumer behavior—places where spending is casual, tips are common, and splurges are discretionary.
Escorts, strippers, bartenders, DoorDash drivers, and even hairstylists are feeling a shift. Fewer tips, fewer clients, and more bargaining are starting to define 2025’s consumer mood.
In a legal European brothel, manager Catherine De Noire told HuffPost that business is unusually slow this spring. What’s usually a peak season after the holiday lull has turned into a dry spell.
High-earning workers are making half what they did just a year ago. Clients are negotiating down prices and opting for the cheapest services. For De Noire, the takeaway is simple: people are nervous about their money—and spending less as a result.
In the U.S., dancers are reporting the same thing. Vulgar Vanity, a performer and influencer, said she didn’t even bother with the popular SXSW festival this year—the clubs were empty.
In Las Vegas, strip club revenue is down 12% year-over-year. Strippers are often early indicators of economic stress. Their income is entirely dependent on discretionary spending, which is one of the first things to dry up when consumers tighten their belts.
Jack Buffington, a professor at the University of Denver, calls beer a barometer of social spending. Sales of craft beer—usually enjoyed at bars or restaurants—are falling, while sales of budget six-packs are rising.
Consumers are choosing to drink at home. It’s a small, quiet shift, but it’s rooted in the same economic anxiety driving people away from clubs and high-end services.
The “lipstick index” “illustrates a seemingly contradictory consumer pattern during economic recessions,” explains Kevin Shahnazari, a data analyst and co-founder of FinlyWealth.
The Lipstick Index doesn’t just apply to lipstick. The theory behind the Lipstick Index is that when money is tight, consumers substitute costly purchases with cheap luxuries like lipstick.“
In the 2008 recession, cosmetics sales increased, showing that even in tough times, individuals crave tiny comfort purchases that give psychological boosts without a hefty financial outlay,” Shahnazari said.
Today, sales are up at both MAC and Sephora for about 15% as people focus on appearance. But there’s a catch: most of the gains are in lower-cost makeup. The trend suggests people still want to look good and connect, but they’re doing it on a budget.
Tips are drying up in the delivery world.
In 2022, DoorDash drivers earned an average of $7.53 per hour in tips. By 2025, that has fallen to between $5.90 and $6.50 nationally—a 14% to 22% decline. In New York City, the drop is even more severe: some drivers report tip declines of 30% to 50%, often receiving just $1 to $3 per delivery.
It’s another signal that consumers are more cautious and less generous with nonessential spending.
Alan Greenspan, former Fed Chair, once pointed to men’s underwear sales as an odd but telling indicator of recessions. Underwear is essential, but men often delay buying it when money is tight.
This year, Hanes, $HBI ran a steep 50% off sale on Amazon, $AMZN while launching a campaign urging men to refresh their drawers—likely in response to sluggish sales. When people cut back on basics, it speaks volumes.
Dating app usage is up, but not in a profitable way for platforms. Paid subscriptions are down, while free-tier activity has increased 12%. Users are still looking for love, but they’re not paying for it.
This shift not only impacts platform revenue, but reflects broader consumer preferences: more cautious, less indulgent.
Salons across the U.S. are reporting fewer blonding appointments. Instead, clients are opting for lower-maintenance, cheaper hairstyles—especially brunette tones.
This isn’t just a beauty trend. It’s a cost-cutting move. People still want to look good, but without the high price of upkeep.
These may sound like strange ways to measure an economy, but they’re grounded in real behavior. Tipping less, downgrading beauty routines, choosing at-home drinks, and canceling strip club visits all point to the same thing: financial pressure.
While the official economic data has yet to confirm a recession, behavioral shifts suggest consumers are already adjusting for harder times ahead.
In short, the recession may not be visible in GDP yet—but it’s showing up in how people live, spend, tip, and cut corners. Sometimes, the earliest warnings come not from Wall Street—but from the street itself.
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Common indicators of a recession include declining GDP for two consecutive quarters, rising unemployment, reduced consumer spending, falling industrial production, and lower business investment. Yield curve inversion and deteriorating consumer confidence are also early warning signs.
A recession indicates a significant slowdown in economic activity across the economy. It reflects reduced income, higher job losses, lower consumer and business spending, and can signal broader financial instability or structural weakness in the market.
A sex worker is anyone who provides sexual services in exchange for money or goods. This includes escorts, strippers, cam performers, and individuals working in legal or informal adult entertainment sectors, depending on local laws and definitions.
While there's no exact threshold, a sharp rise in the unemployment rate—typically by 0.5 percentage points or more within a few months—can signal the start of a recession. Sustained rates above 6% are often associated with economic downturns.
Unemployment caused by a recession is called cyclical unemployment. It results from reduced demand for goods and services, prompting businesses to cut jobs. It typically rises during recessions and falls during economic recoveries.
You can identify a recession through official economic data like declining GDP, rising jobless claims, slowing retail sales, and lower industrial output. However, early behavioral changes—like reduced tipping, spending cutbacks, and shifts in service industries—may signal trouble before the data confirms it.
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