Trump’s trade regime is barreling toward a July 9 deadline, when suspended tariffs of 25%–50% are set to snap back on nearly 60 countries. While the U.S. has finalized deals with the U.K. and China and is close with Mexico and India, others—including Canada and the EU—face rising pressure or stalled talks.
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Trump warned countries will soon get letters detailing “what they have to pay,” and may shorten the timeline at will. Treasury Secretary Bessent said extensions are possible for major partners, with a goal of securing 10–12 deals by Labor Day.
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Tensions spiked after Canada moved forward with a 3% digital services tax, prompting the U.S. to suspend talks and launch a Section 301 review—a trade enforcement tool that allows tariffs without multilateral approval and was last used against China in 2018.
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The administration is racing to divide compliant allies from tariff targets, but many deals remain vague or partial. China’s agreement includes fentanyl enforcement, while the U.K.'s leaves key sectors unresolved. Bessent acknowledged some deals may take months.
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Despite the uncertainty, the White House is touting surging tariff revenues: June alone brought in nearly $27 billion, putting the U.S. on pace for a $30B+ monthly run rate and over $121B this fiscal year. With new hikes still on the table, markets face asymmetric risks as Trump reengineers global trade with blunt instruments and little warning.

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