Originally sent out in earlier this month, this framework outlined a deliberate strategy to rewire U.S. economic leverage through disruption. Since then, markets and policymakers have tested its limits—and exposed its vulnerabilities. Here’s where things stand now:

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1. Tariffs + DOGE = Market Detox (Update)

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Shock tariffs and meme-asset volatility delivered on their intent: the S&P 500’s P/E ratio has dropped 10% since January, signaling valuation compression amid tighter financial conditions. DOGE-fueled volatility, ironically, shaved an estimated $930 off the average taxpayer burden (~$155B saved via Treasury DOGE transfers). But the formula isn’t without strain—tariffs have now generated over $500 million since April 5, per U.S. Customs, but the S&P is down 10% YTD. Liquidity stress in Treasuries led to a quiet reversal: Trump paused key tariffs not to de-escalate—but to prevent systemic cracks from basis trade blowups.

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2. Revenue Engine (Stress-Tested)

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The tariff regime remains a massive revenue tool—Trump claims $2B/day in inflows—but its fiscal utility is now entangled with market mechanics.  A Treasury selloff and swap spread inversion forced the administration’s hand. Behind the scenes, Scott Bessent stepped in as damage control, signaling that financial plumbing—not trade—was the true fault line. What began as a tax shift has become a balancing act between solvency and credibility.

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3. Asset Accumulation (Timing the Bottom)

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With BTC down 9%, the S&P off 10%, the Russell 2000 down 16%, and the Nasdaq down 15.5% YTD, the window for Congress to approve a wealth fund to deploy capital into distressed assets is open.

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4. Lower GDP ≠ Lower Yields (Yet)

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The Fed has not indicated more rate cuts are needed.

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5. QE Returns

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The original thesis was that trade-driven disinflation might give the Fed cover to relaunch selective asset purchases to keep bond yields lower. And while headline inflation cooled to 2.4% in March—with core hitting a four-year low—Powell’s rhetoric hasn’t followed. The Fed remains focused on anchoring expectations, not easing stress in credit or equity markets. Until growth and inflation recouple decisively— inflation falls fast enough while growth collapses—the Fed’s balance sheet will stay frozen. The liquidity taps are not turning on unless the economy breaks more severely.

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6. Regulatory Pullback (Full Steam)

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Deregulation is moving swiftly: energy, crypto, and industrial permitting processes have all seen eased oversight.

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7. Fiscal Sweeteners (From Tariff Windfalls to Tax Flashpoints)

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The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is set to expire this year, threatening higher tax bills unless Congress acts. Trump has called for eliminating taxes on tips and overtime, while GOP leaders push to renew existing cuts. Speaker Johnson is aiming for passage by Memorial Day.

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8. The Reboot at a Crossroads

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Trump’s macro playbook envisions disruption as a means to renewal—replacing globalization-era financial excess with domestic production and strategic reinvestment. But the reboot now faces execution headwinds. Proposals for Trump-aligned ETFs and a sovereign wealth fund to buy distressed assets remain aspirational amid fiscal gridlock and Step 7’s unresolved tax math. Tariffs have forced a valuation reset (Step 1), but without a credible glidepath forward, the “reboot” risks becoming a pause button rather than a reset—stalling mid-cycle under the weight of political friction and policy fragmentation.

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