As the U.S. economy weakens, President Donald Trump’s latest tariff push is amplifying economic uncertainty. In an effort to curb foreign competition and force trade concessions, Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports and threatened 25% duties on Canadian and Mexican goods—though enforcement on North American trade partners has been temporarily delayed. The administration insists that the "short-term pain" is necessary to address trade imbalances, fentanyl trafficking, and illegal migration, but the economic repercussions are already unfolding.
‍

China has retaliated with tariffs on U.S. crude oil, liquefied natural gas, and agricultural machinery, escalating tensions. Trump also announced that the U.S. plans to place "reciprocal tariffs" of the exact same value on any country placing tariffs on American exports in an effort to ensure fair trade.  
‍

Meanwhile, Canada and Mexico are preparing countermeasures should negotiations fail. The risk of a full-blown trade war is rising, with potential consequences for supply chains, business investment, and inflation. Instead of boosting domestic industry, these policies risk accelerating economic fragility at a time when GDP growth is slowing, labor markets are softening, and consumer confidence is deteriorating. On the hand, they have served to date as a starting point for negotiations and gaining greater investments into America, as just announced by the Japanese government. Japan's largest Venture Capital firm, Softbank, also announced a $100 Billion investment into U.S. companies.
‍

Perhaps the biggest takeaway from these meetings is Japan's plan to start purchasing more LNG from the U.S., and its intention to launch a joint venture to build a new gas pipeline across Alaska from North to South Coastlines in order to build an LNG export terminal for shipping gas to Japan. Current shipments leave from Texas and Louisiana. 

‍

Tariffs on Canadian Oil Could Send U.S. Fuel Prices Soaring

‍

Despite being the world’s largest oil producer, the U.S. remains heavily dependent on Canadian crude, particularly the heavy oil that its refineries are built to process. Unlike light shale oil from Texas and North Dakota, Canadian oil is thick, viscous, and essential for U.S. refining infrastructure. Canada supplies over 60% of America’s crude imports, making it an irreplaceable trade partner for energy security.

Trump’s 10% tariff on Canadian oil threatens to raise fuel prices across the U.S. by increasing costs for refiners, particularly in the Midwest and Gulf Coast. Without access to cheaper Canadian crude, refiners may have to source heavy oil from Venezuela or Russia, introducing new geopolitical risks and supply chain disruptions. At a time when inflation is already accelerating, these tariffs could exacerbate cost pressures, weaken consumer sentiment, and further strain the fragile economic outlook.
‍

‍