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U.S. Stocks Edge Up Amid Cooling Inflation and Rising Rate Cut Expectations

Stocks rose as traders priced in an 87% chance of a December rate cut, supported by softer jobs data and easing inflation.

Sectors & Industries

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The final week of November ended on a cautiously optimistic note for Wall Street. The S&P 500 gained 0.85%, the Nasdaq rose 1.75%, and the Dow added 0.79%, with all three indexes grinding closer to record highs. Behind the market’s lift was a growing consensus around a potential December interest rate cut — now priced at nearly 87% odds by traders.

A surprise drop of 32,000 private-sector payrolls added fuel to the pivot narrative, reinforcing views that the labor market is softening in a controlled fashion. Meanwhile, a lighter-than-expected PCE inflation print and an improvement in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index helped strengthen the case for easing monetary policy without sparking recession fears.

Institutional Flows Return: Biggest Equity Buying Since 2008

In a major shift, institutional investors stepped back into the market with force. According to Bank of America, last week marked one of the largest equity-buying weeks since the 2008 financial crisis, with a surge of capital flowing into individual stocks rather than broad index funds.

Tech leadership broadened, with Alphabet, Meta, and Broadcom helping lead the Nasdaq higher. Salesforce also posted strong gains following a solid earnings report, contributing to renewed confidence in large-cap enterprise tech.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin extended its rebound, buoyed by news that major banks are expanding stablecoin and custody pilots with Coinbase, suggesting broader institutional acceptance of crypto infrastructure.

AI and Robotics Surge on Federal Support Speculation

Momentum spread to the AI and robotics sectors after reports surfaced of a potential federal executive order aimed at boosting U.S. domestic robotics capabilities. The biggest mover was iRobot, which surged 74% amid speculation that the Trump administration may support the sector as part of a broader industrial policy push.

The rally spilled over into broader AI infrastructure stocks, as investors interpreted government interest as a tailwind for long-term demand across automation and next-gen computing platforms.

Retail Sees Mixed Results

Retail stocks offered a more varied picture. American Eagle jumped 15% after beating earnings expectations and raising forward guidance. On the other hand, Macy’s slipped as its outlook disappointed investors looking for stronger signs of holiday resilience. Dollar Tree climbed after lifting full-year EPS guidance, highlighting strength in the discount retail segment.

Copper Breakout Highlights Commodities Rotation

Outside of equities, copper futures hit a new record high, driven by tariff-related supply concerns and a renewed push into metals-linked equities. The surge in copper demand signaled investor expectations for supply chain bottlenecks, especially as industrial policy and geopolitical friction continue to affect global trade routes.

Outlook

With December approaching, markets appear increasingly positioned for a Fed pivot — though policymakers have yet to firmly commit. The combination of softening inflation, decelerating job growth, and renewed institutional buying is setting the stage for an eventful final month of the year.

However, risks remain. A sudden shift in global liquidity, geopolitical surprises, or a firm hawkish stance from the Fed could derail the rally. Investors are watching the data — and the Fed — closely.

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