Stocks Face Uncertainty as Japanese Carry Trade Unwinds, Triggering Potential Selloffs
Sectors & Industries
The short answer is: maybe. There have been different estimates of how much of this leveraged trade is left to unwind.
Some say 25% while others think we're only half done. Since no investor wants to tank their own returns, we're likely to see some calm creep back in just longer enough for markets to recover some losses before the next drawdown occurs.
Any additional event - weather, war, bad earnings - could trigger the selloff before then.
According to the most recent data, CTAs had been net short about $6 billion worth of yen futures contracts heading into August. Although this figure likely represented a tiny fraction of bets against the yen, Bechtel said.
What the Federal Reserve does next could also have an impact. Whether or not the central bank delivers on the aggressive interest-rate cuts could influence the value of the U.S. dollar and the dollar-yen exchange rate, said Freya Beamish, chief economist at TSLombard.
The dollar was seen weakening against the yen on Friday, with one dollar trading at 147 yen, down 0.2% on the day, but the U.S. currency has already clawed back Monday's drop.
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