Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” is supposed to be the crown jewel of his second-term agenda. But behind the patriotic branding lies a storm brewing over the debt, the dollar, and the soul of the Republican Party. The bill lifts the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, and depending on who you ask, it either adds $2.4 trillion to the deficit (per the CBO) or cuts $1.4 trillion (per Trump’s team). That’s a $3.8 trillion swing rooted in how the numbers are scored: CBO tallies what’s legally guaranteed, while the White House counts on future growth and spending cuts that haven’t actually passed.
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Markets aren’t buying the optimism. Moody’s just downgraded the U.S. credit outlook, warning that rising deficits and political gridlock threaten long-term debt sustainability. And if Washington keeps spending like it has been, the U.S. may end up with a BBB credit rating—just not the kind Trump had in mind.
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This matters for the dollar. A deteriorating credit profile erodes confidence in Treasuries, pushing yields higher and weakening the greenback over time. The BBB’s structure—front-loading tax cuts while back-loading vague cost savings—exacerbates the risk. Without real, enforceable spending reform, the bill accelerates fiscal imbalance just as global investors are questioning America’s ability to manage its books.
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Meanwhile, the political clash between Trump and Musk has become a defining fracture in the GOP. Musk, once the figurehead of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), now denounces the BBB as a betrayal of the anti-waste MAGA agenda. He’s floated launching a third party, threatened to back primary challengers, and even suggested Trump is protecting secrets related to Epstein—before deleting the post. Trump responded by threatening to pull federal contracts from SpaceX and calling Musk “disrespectful” and “done.”
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The fallout is real. Senate fiscal hawks like Rand Paul and Ron Johnson are lining up behind Musk’s critique, while swing-district Republicans are scrambling to defend a bill they just voted for. With only three GOP defections needed to sink the bill in the Senate, the path forward is murky—and the midterm risk is rising.
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What was meant to be a “Big Beautiful” legacy is fast becoming a Big Bipartisan Backlash. And if Congress doesn’t rein in the spending, they might not just downgrade the dollar—they might downgrade their own chances in 2026.

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