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Macrosynthesis

TLDR: Markets Edge Through Short Week as Trump’s Strike on Iran Ignites the Powder Keg

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The Juneteenth-shortened trading week began with President Trump cutting short his appearance at the G7 to address rising tensions in the Middle East—an ominous sign that left investors uneasy. Though he teased a wait-and-see approach, saying he’d decide “within two weeks” whether to help Israel destroy Iran’s nuclear program, markets spent the week watching the fuse burn. On Saturday night, Trump ordered sweeping strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, deploying Northrop Grumman (NOC)-made stealth bombers and Boeing-made (BA) bunker busters in what he called a “spectacular military success.” The move caught many off guard, given his earlier delay. Iran promised retribution. Oil futures surged. U.S. embassies shuttered.
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Meanwhile, the Fed held rates steady at 4.25%–4.5%, signaling two cuts likely before year-end despite elevated inflation projections. Chair Powell emphasized caution and data dependence, pointing to tariff uncertainty, while Governor Waller later floated the possibility of a July cut. Markets briefly rallied on the dovish undercurrent—but sentiment remained brittle.
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For markets, the story shifted fast—from rate cuts to retaliatory threats. Last week was supposed to be about Fed clarity. It ended with war calculus and the threat of oil prices spiking to $120 if Iran engages the U.S. director in war.

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Oil Chokepoint Threatens Global Supply: Iran Moves to Close Strait of Hormuz

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Following U.S. airstrikes on Iran, Iran’s parliament voted to close the Strait of Hormuz—a pivotal global energy artery that handles over 20 million barrels of oil per day, or roughly 20% of global petroleum consumption. If approved by Iran’s Supreme Leader, this would mark the first closure since 1972, choking off the primary sea route for crude exports from Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and a large share of Saudi Arabia’s production.
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The closure would leave only limited pipeline capacity to reroute barrels—an estimated 65% drop in exportable volume according to market analysts. Already, more than 50 tankers scrambled out of the strait following the U.S. strikes. Oil prices, though markets were closed, are expected to gap significantly higher. JPMorgan labeled this its “worst-case scenario," warning that prices could spike to $120–$130/barrel, and inflation could quickly return to 5%, levels last seen in early 2023. Some forecasts even project $150–$200/barrel oil if a prolonged shutdown takes hold.
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For the Fed, this represents a brutal curveball. Energy prices have already risen ~$20 since April, adding ~40bps to inflation based on historical sensitivity models. While rate cuts were anticipated just days ago, markets are now confronting a new possibility: stagflation risk and policy reversal if this energy shock endures.

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Precision Strike, Political Shock: Trump’s Iran Offensive Rewires Risk

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What began as a calibrated delay ended in a coordinated show of force. On Saturday night, President Trump confirmed that U.S. stealth bombers had struck Iran’s Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan nuclear sites using GBU-57 bunker busters, calling it a “spectacular military success.” The message: eliminate Iran’s nuclear threat and compel peace—fast.
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The strikes followed warnings days earlier, but satellite imagery from Maxar suggested something was imminent. Unusual truck activity was detected near the Fordow enrichment facility on Thursday and Friday—movements that now look like last-minute Iranian efforts to shield the site. Post-strike images from independent analysts suggest damage penetrated deep into the hillside above centrifuge halls, though Iran denies major losses.
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Tehran responded with missile barrages on Tel Aviv, Israel, killing civilians and escalating a conflict already in its ninth day. While the U.S. has avoided direct hits so far, Iran’s foreign ministry promised retaliation. Behind the scenes, U.S. officials told Tehran the attack was “one-off.” But Trump made clear in his address: “There are many targets left.”
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U.S. lawmakers bristled. Senator Thomas Massie and others called the action unconstitutional, despite the Constitution granting the President immense powers to act without Congressional consent for 60 days.  Trump, once a non-interventionist, now warns that if Iran rejects diplomacy, “tragedy” will follow.

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Gold, Oil, and the Repricing of 'Short War' Risk

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Gold attracted $2.8B in inflows last week—its largest in two months—as investors sought safety from rising geopolitical risk and monetary uncertainty. Energy stocks also surged, and as the chart below shows, energy funds just posted their biggest weekly inflow since October 2023.
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U.S. equities saw $37B in inflows, with small- and mid-cap stocks leading the charge. Emerging markets rallied, and even previously shorted energy ETFs bounced back.
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All of this happened with investors still sitting on the sidelines. Hedge funds and algorithmic strategies remain lightly invested, with equity exposure at some of the lowest levels in over a year. That means there’s less fuel for panic—and more room for upside if momentum builds.
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Strategists are increasingly favoring a “barbell” approach: pairing high-growth U.S. tech with undervalued European stocks, mixing LNG and gold exposure, and balancing defense with infrastructure. Hartnett expects slowing growth to push Treasury yields lower, potentially setting up the Fed’s next pivot at Jackson Hole.
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Whether this strike is the end of it—or just the beginning—investors are positioning for both scenarios. With sentiment already washed out, even a small escalation or surprise truce could send markets swinging.
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Volatility isn’t the risk now—it’s the baseline.

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Divided States: U.S. Support for Israel Grows—But Trump Faces a Public Wall on Iran

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The American relationship with Israel is complex and rarely well explained by media. There are 700,000 Americans living in Israel, many with dual citizenship and dual homes. A nuclear threat against Israel is seen by many as a threat against Americans visiting, studying, or living in Israel. Additionally, Israel has significant meaning for around 2.5 million Christians. This support is rooted in the belief that the existence of Israel is a fulfillment of biblical prophecy and is necessary for the second coming of Jesus Christ - a Jew born in Israel (Judea then) from a Jewish mother.
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Iran's Islamic regime seeks the destruction of Israel by any means necessary. Technologically less equipped than Israel, Iran funds "proxy groups" in Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis to conduct terrorist operations against Israel and the United States. Iran's proxies hit U.S. military bases 170 times over the past few years. Iran even plotted to assassinate Trump. Foreign policy experts state a nuclear Iran increases the chances that these strikes would be more deadly and more frequent in the future.
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Even when framed as a nuclear threat against Americans, views on U.S. involvement with Iran barely shift. A Washington Post/SSRS poll found only 25% support airstrikes, with 45% opposed and 82% concerned about a full-scale war.
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Trump may have launched bunker busters abroad, but at home, he’s facing a political base that doesn’t want another war.

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Rate Cut Standoff: Fed Cites Strong Labor Market, Critics See “Groupthink”

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While geopolitical shocks dominate headlines, another power struggle is playing out between the Federal Reserve and its critics over the path of interest rates. After holding rates steady at its June 18 meeting, the Fed reaffirmed plans for two rate cuts in 2025, but gave no clear timetable—despite inflation falling to 1.4%, well below target.
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Critics, including voices like Larry Kudlow, argue the Fed is clinging to a faulty narrative: that Trump’s new tariffs will reaccelerate inflation. Yet past tariff episodes—including 25% duties on China, steel, and solar panels—never pushed inflation beyond 2%. Kudlow says productivity gains and supply-side tax incentives offset those price pressures, and today’s slowing money supply (M2 growth near 4%) adds further disinflationary weight.
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Despite that, Powell and the Fed remain cautious. At his press conference, Powell repeatedly emphasized a strong labor market—saying participation, wages, and job creation are healthy and “not crying out for a rate cut.” Yet other indicators suggest softness: the Bloomberg Labor Market Surprise Index is underperforming, initial jobless claims are rising modestly, and the unemployment rate has ticked up to 4.2–4.3%.
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That creates a split: one Fed camp warns of inflation stickiness from tariffs, while others—like Fed Governor Christopher Waller—believe cuts could begin as soon as the next meeting. Markets are aligned with the latter: traders now expect cuts in September (25bps) and December (25bps), with more in early 2025.
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The bigger critique is about transparency and independence. Kudlow calls the Fed “opaque” and driven by bureaucratic groupthink—highlighting the 12–0 unanimous votes, lack of dissent, and absence of clear economic modeling behind policy decisions. He argues the Fed is now a political institution, acting on assumptions about trade it doesn’t control, while sidelining the proven disinflationary impact of supply-side growth and deregulation.
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As volatility from tariffs and foreign conflicts ramps up, the Fed faces a credibility test. Markets want clarity, not dogma. And critics are asking: Is the Fed responding to data—or defending a worldview that no longer fits the facts?

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Last Week's Market Performance

Markets wavered this week as investors absorbed intensifying Israel-Iran missile strikes and the Fed’s fourth policy decision of the year. President Trump said he would decide within two weeks whether to escalate U.S. military involvement.
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The Fed held rates steady, as expected, but revised projections showed higher inflation and unemployment, with two cuts still penciled in for 2025. Chair Powell struck a cautious tone, citing high tariff-related uncertainty and emphasizing a wait-and-see approach.
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The S&P 500 slipped -0.2% to 5,968. The Dow ended flat, while the Nasdaq edged up +0.2%. The Russell 2000 gained +0.4%. Volatility dipped -1% to 20.62.

Sectors: Energy (+1.1%) and Tech (+0.9%) led. Healthcare (-2.7%) and Real Estate (-1.3%) lagged.

Commodities: WTI oil jumped +3.6% to $73.84/bbl. Gold fell -1.9% to $3,385/oz. Natural gas rallied +7.4%.

Top S&P 500 Gainers: Coinbase (+28%), Jabil (+15%), Kroger (+11%)

Laggards: Enphase (-20%), First Solar (-14%), Accenture (-10%)

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Upcoming Events This Week

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Markets will closely track Fed Chair Powell’s congressional testimony for clues on rate policy, while investors remain alert to any U.S. moves in the Israel–Iran conflict. On the economic front, May’s PCE inflation, durable goods orders, and flash PMIs from major economies will be key. Durable goods are expected to rebound 4.5% after a sharp April drop. Core PCE is forecast to rise just 0.1%, reinforcing disinflation trends. Other U.S. data includes housing, trade, consumer confidence, and final Q1 GDP. Globally, attention turns to Canada’s GDP and inflation, Mexico’s trade and jobs reports, and Brazil’s labor data, alongside a Bank of Mexico rate decision.

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Company News

LevelFields AI Stock Alerts Last Week

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Coinsilium’s Forza (CINGF) Rockets +130% on Bitcoin Accumulation

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Coinsilium’s Forza arm triggered a staggering 130% single-day rally after ramping up its Bitcoin holdings in a series of strategic transactions. The move taps directly into renewed retail and institutional demand for crypto-linked equities. Notably, the “Crypto Adoption” scenario has averaged +18% one-day returns over the past 3 months—underscoring the momentum behind digital asset plays in the current macro environment.

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LGHL +19% as Lion Group Relaunches Crypto Ops

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Lion Group Holding Ltd. (LGHL) surged 19% after announcing the official relaunch of its cryptocurrency operations, signaling a strategic pivot aimed at expanding investor access to digital assets. The Nasdaq-listed firm’s revival plan comes as broader crypto sentiment strengthens and investors seek entry points into regulated digital platforms.

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Hepion (HEPA) Jumps +24% After Interim CEO Appointment

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HEPA gained 24% after naming Dr. Kaouthar Lbiati as interim CEO, effective June 16. The leadership shift at the clinical-stage biotech—focused on diagnostics for celiac disease, COVID, H. pylori, and liver cancer—sparked renewed investor interest amid expectations for accelerated commercialization and strategic clarity.

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Oracle +8% After Earnings Beat, Cloud Guidance Sparks 2026 Bull Case

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Oracle shares jumped following a robust fiscal Q4 earnings report that beat on both EPS and revenue. Revenue rose 11% YoY to $15.9B, with EPS landing at $1.70 vs. $1.64 expected. Cloud services and license support revenue hit $11.7B, while CEO Safra Catz projected 70%+ cloud infrastructure growth in fiscal 2026, up from 52% this quarter.
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Catz raised the company’s long-term outlook, suggesting Oracle could exceed its prior $104B revenue target for FY2029. Capital expenditures are also surging, with FY2025 spending surpassing $21B—and FY2026 projected to top $25B—to meet overwhelming cloud demand. CTO Larry Ellison said Oracle even received a request to fulfill all available cloud capacity from a major unnamed client.
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Oracle’s strategic positioning in AI infrastructure—including its partnership with OpenAI’s Stargate initiative and migration deals with firms like Temu—is cementing its role as a heavyweight in the cloud-AI convergence era.

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OpenAI Surges to $10B ARR Milestone as ChatGPT Adoption Accelerates

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OpenAI has officially crossed $10 billion in annual recurring revenue, marking a major inflection point in the AI platform race. The figure—double last year’s ARR—excludes licensing revenue from Microsoft, highlighting the explosive organic growth of ChatGPT, its enterprise tools, and API subscriptions. The company now serves 500 million weekly users and has grown its paying business customer base from 2 million to 3 million in just four months.

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Coinbase and Circle Rally on Historic Stablecoin

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LegislationCoinbase and Circle rallied after the Senate passed the GENIUS Act, the first federal framework for U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoins. Coinbase surged on optimism around its role in compliant infrastructure, especially with its integration of USDC—Circle’s flagship token. Circle, fresh off its IPO, extended gains as investors priced in regulatory clarity and institutional adoption.
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The bill passed 68-30, mandating that stablecoins be fully backed by liquid assets like cash or Treasuries, with monthly disclosures and strict AML compliance. It grants broad oversight to the Treasury and opens the door for banks, fintechs, and retailers to issue stablecoins.
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The move validates Circle’s push for transparency and boosts Coinbase’s status as a rails provider, especially given its enterprise integrations with Stripe, Shopify, and JPMorgan’s JPMD token on its Base blockchain. With 2024 stablecoin volumes topping $28 trillion, the legislation marks a pivotal moment for the sector ahead of a potential $2T+ market.

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Lockheed Martin's Having a Great Year

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Amazon Rolling Out Delivery Robots

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Trump Unveils Missile Defense Plan

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This is not financial advice. All information represent opinions only for informational purposes. Given the vast number of stocks we cover in these reports, assume staff covering stocks have positions in stocks discussed.

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