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Macrosynthesis

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TLDR

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Student Loan Delinquency Rate Spikes

‍Rates rise as COVID-era loan forgiveness ends.

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Markets Rally as Confidence in U.S. Begins to Renew

‍Record inflows into U.S. Treasury bonds.

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Goldman: USD Decline Is Structural

‍Goldman sees a 45% chance of U.S. recession and expects the Fed to remain reactive.

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Corporate Forecasts Slashed as Tariff Pain Grows

‍Chipotle, P&G, and Delta cut 2025 outlooks, citing rising costs, fading demand, and mounting uncertainty around Trump’s trade policy.

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Markets Rally as Confidence in U.S. Begins to Renew

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The S&P 500 climbed above 5,500, posting its longest winning streak since January, as Tesla (+9.8%) and Alphabet led a tech-fueled rally. But behind the gains, geopolitical and policy turmoil dominated headlines. The death of Pope Francis drew 250,000 mourners and global leaders to Rome, including Trump and Zelenskyy, who met privately before sitting a row apart in St. Peter’s Square.

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Meanwhile, confusion reigned over U.S.-China trade talks. Trump insisted negotiations were underway, but Beijing flatly denied it. Billionaire Bill Ackman posted photos of a China delegation - that insisted on removing their faces - entering the Treasury Department. Investors remain whipsawed by tariff threats and mixed messaging, as consumer sentiment plunged and long-term inflation expectations hit their highest since 1991.

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Adding fuel to the fire, Trump promoted his $TRUMP meme coin by offering top holders dinner access—prompting Senators Warren and Schiff to demand an ethics probe for “pay-to-play” corruption. Warren earns millions from speaking fees and consulting gigs, so the hypocrisy is thick. The coin surged 50%, raising concerns about foreign influence and profiteering from presidential access. Foreign investors placed $63B in U.S. equities since March and Treasury bond investments had record inflows, indicating renewed faith in the U.S. government's solvency following a mass exodus.

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Sentiment Improves Some, Shows Cracks Under Tariff Strain

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Despite markets closing strong, the mood on Main Street is lukewarm at best. University of Michigan’s April consumer sentiment came in at 52.2—up from the initial 50.8 read but still the lowest since July 2022. The expectations index cratered to 47.3 as households braced for a fresh wave of inflation and economic instability. Tariff uncertainty was the elephant in the room: year-ahead inflation expectations surged to 6.5%, the highest since 1981. While current conditions didn’t deteriorate as much as feared, the trend is unmistakable—Americans are rattled. Long-run inflation expectations also ticked up to 4.4%, suggesting the damage may be structural. Markets may be climbing, but the consumer—the engine of U.S. growth—is flashing red.

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Bond Yields Slide as Rate Cut Bets Build

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The 10-year Treasury yield fell another 3bps Friday to 4.29%. What mattered to markets was the shift in tone from Fed officials. Governor Christopher Waller opened the door to rate cuts if tariffs hit the labor market, and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the Fed could act by June if the data warrants. Traders are now pricing in a 25bps cut as early as this summer, with three total cuts expected by year-end.

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With consumers rattled and Powell resisting political pressure, the bond market is increasingly betting that rising unemployment—not inflation—will be the decisive force in determining interest rates.

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Goldman: USD Decline Is Structural

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Goldman Sachs is warning that the current market calm may be short-lived. Goldman sees a 45% chance of U.S. recession and expects the Fed to remain reactive—waiting on labor market deterioration before acting. If job losses pick up, the Fed could cut rates aggressively, by 2% or more. Goldman also argues the dollar’s weakness is no blip. Years of over-allocation into U.S. assets, held largely unhedged by global investors, may now reverse. With real dollar value still historically high, Goldman sees room for a multi-year, 25–30% depreciation—especially if foreign demand for U.S. assets wanes.

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This is good news for U.S. exporters, as it makes their goods more competitive and desirable. But it's bad news for U.S. consumers and importers as buying power erodes.

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Tariffs Hit the Cart

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As Trump’s 145% tariff on Chinese imports takes effect, the inflation pass-through is hitting fast—and visibly. China-based retailer Shein raised prices on over 60% of its catalog, with some home goods up more than 300% and beauty products surging 51%. Bloomberg’s sample cart showed a 10%+ spike across hundreds of items in just two days.
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Amazon sellers are feeling it too. SmartScout tracked 930 items with price hikes averaging +29%, driven by rising import costs. Zulay Kitchen raised prices on staples like milk frothers and laid off 19% of staff. Chinese brands like Anker have adjusted pricing across one-fifth of U.S. listings. Sellers are shifting production to Vietnam and Mexico, but the reorientation will take time. In the interim, consumers are absorbing a hidden tax on daily purchases.
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While the White House insists inflation is under control, household budgets are telling a different story. Data on AirBnB rental occupancy, shown below, has fallen from 62% to 53% in just a short time. Some markets are experiencing 40% occupancy rates, which are likely not high enough to cover mortgages on expensive investment properties purchased during COVID-times.

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Brands Go Quiet

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With household sentiment decreasing and input costs rising, advertising budgets are likely the next domino. Agencies like Omnicom and Publicis haven’t slashed forecasts yet, but they’re waving caution flags. Forvia has already pulled back on marketing and travel, while WPP warns sales may shrink up to -2% this year.
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Ad spending—always the first to go in uncertain times—is shifting away from splashy TV toward data-driven, lower-risk channels. Executives are describing 2025 as a year of “control and conversion”—a sign that the optimism of early-year earnings is giving way to defensive positioning. Even if a full-blown recession doesn’t materialize, the psychology of contraction is setting in. Tariffs aren’t just distorting prices—they’re distorting narratives, and companies are beginning to fall silent.

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Housing Cools as Inventory Rises, Prices Stall

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After years of rapid appreciation, the U.S. housing market is finally slowing. Home prices rose just 4.5% year-over-year in Q1—the smallest increase since 2023—and Moody’s projects growth to drop to just 1.0% in Q4, the lowest rate in six years. That would bring full-year 2025 gains to just 1.8%, the weakest since 2011.
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Realtor.com data shows the median list price ticked up 0.6%—the first increase in 10 months—but homes are taking longer to sell, with average time on market up four days year-over-year. A 20% rise in inventory is giving buyers more options, while higher mortgage rates (6–7%) are keeping sellers sidelined.
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An increase in home listings for sale is rising rapidly in vacation areas like Miami, the Outer Banks, and Galveston, Texas. According to Realtor.com, 34% of homes on sale recently cut listing prices in response to increased inventory but stagnant buyer interest.
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March existing home sales fell 5.9% from February to the slowest pace since 2009, with first-time buyers still below historic averages. Regional weakness is most visible in the West, where affordability remains tight.

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Tariffs are adding new pressure, pushing up costs on appliances, furnishings, and construction materials. With inflation risks rising and rate cuts delayed, buyer sentiment is shifting. Sellers are holding firm on prices—for now—but momentum is fading. The market is no longer red-hot; it’s cooling, slowly but decisively.

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Last Week's Market Performance

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U.S. equity markets posted their second-best weekly performance of 2025 following a dramatic rebound in sentiment. The S&P 500 jumped 4.6% to 5,525, the Nasdaq surged 6.7% to 17,383, and the Dow climbed 2.5% to 40,114. The Russell 2000 rose 4.1% to 1,958, aided by renewed risk appetite. Volatility eased sharply, with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) falling 16.2% to 24.84—its lowest level in weeks.
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Sector performance within the S&P 500 was led by Information Technology (+7.9%), Consumer Discretionary (+7.4%), and Telecom (+6.4%). Financials and Industrials each gained 3%, while Real Estate edged up 0.2%. Utilities (+0.5%) and Healthcare (+1.9%) posted modest advances. Consumer Staples lagged, falling 1.3%.
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Notable gainers included ServiceNow (+22%), Microchip Technology (+22%), and Palantir (+20%). On the downside, Fiserv (-15%), Northrop Grumman (-12%), and T-Mobile (-11%) weighed on broader averages.
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Globally, Germany’s DAX rose 4.9%, Japan’s Nikkei added 2.8%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 2.7%. Meanwhile, WTI crude fell 2.6% to $63.02, and Bitcoin surged 11.5%, continuing its role as a speculative hedge amid ongoing policy uncertainty.

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Upcoming Events This Week

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Markets enter the week cautiously, with tariff policy still undefined and ripe for sudden shifts. Any move from Washington or Beijing could jolt risk assets as volatility lingers across equities, bonds, and commodities.
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The advance estimate for US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2025 will be released on April 30, 2025. This report, the first of three estimates, is scheduled to be released at 8:30 AM. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will publish this report. Expectations are for .4% growth but a negative print would signal recession and send the market down.
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Earnings will take center stage, with Meta, Amazon, ExxonMobil, and Caterpillar set to report. Investors are watching for margin strain, guidance revisions, and tariff fallout.
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On the macro front, all eyes are on Thursday’s PCE inflation print—critical for rate cut expectations—alongside consumer confidence and pending home sales, which will gauge real economy resilience.
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With trade tensions and rate uncertainty colliding, markets may struggle to extend last week’s rally without a clear directional catalyst.

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Company News

LevelFields AI Stock Alerts Last Week

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OBLG Soars +70% on Aggressive Buyback Authorization

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Oblong Inc. (OBLG) rocketed +70% after unveiling a $500,000 stock buyback plan, potentially repurchasing up to 25% of its float. With no debt and $5M in cash, management emphasized the move reflects strong conviction in the company’s undervaluation. The announcement comes amid Oblong’s broader M&A strategy focused on AI-enabled SaaS targets. CEO Peter Holst framed the buyback as a dual strategy to boost shareholder value and maintain flexibility for long-term growth.

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• LRHC Rallies +37% on Strategic Share Repurchase

• Equifax (EFX) Jumps 10% on Earnings Beat, Capital Deployments

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GOOG Jumps +4% on Big Earnings Beat, $70B Buyback Boost

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Alphabet (GOOG) rose 4% after crushing Q1 estimates with EPS of $2.81 on $90.2B in revenue, well ahead of forecasts. Advertising revenue jumped to $66.9B (+8.5% YoY), while Google Cloud grew 28% to $12.3B. The board authorized a $70B share buyback and hiked its dividend by 5%, signaling confidence despite ongoing antitrust battles and rising regulatory pressure. Management warned that Trump’s repeal of the de minimis tariff exemption could weigh on APAC ad demand later this year. Still, AI investments and strong growth in search and YouTube helped power robust margins. With net income up 46% and upbeat commentary from CFO Ashkenazi, Alphabet reaffirmed its spot as a Big Tech standout in a volatile macro environment.

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Tesla Rebounds +6% as Musk Steps Back From DOGE, Earnings Disappoint

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Tesla (TSLA) shares rallied 6% despite a brutal 71% drop in Q1 profit to $409M and a 9% revenue decline. The rebound followed Elon Musk’s surprise announcement that he will reduce time spent on Trump’s DOGE initiative to refocus on Tesla. Adjusted earnings received a 12% lift by excluding $97M in crypto losses, drawing potential SEC scrutiny. Meanwhile, falling deliveries, brand damage from political blowback, and canceled guidance stoked concerns. Still, Musk touted upcoming autonomous vehicle projects and a potential robotaxi pilot launch in Austin by June. With margins under pressure and protests intensifying, Tesla’s forward path may now hinge on Musk’s renewed leadership and execution.

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INTC Sinks -10% on Weak Guidance, Job Cuts, and Tariff Fears

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Intel (INTC) plunged 10% after issuing a grim Q2 forecast and revealing deeper-than-expected structural issues. New CEO Lip-Bu Tan plans to cut over 20% of the workforce, slash capex by $2B, and require four in-office days per week to fix Intel’s “bloated bureaucracy.” Q1 revenue beat at $12.7B, but Q2 guidance of $11.2B–$12.4B missed consensus. Gross margins remain depressed at 39.2%, with further downside expected. Analysts warned that Intel’s foundry strategy lacks traction, and weak AI offerings leave it vulnerable to rivals like Nvidia. Tan acknowledged a “multi-quarter reset,” as looming tariffs and soft consumer demand weigh heavily on chip outlooks.

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Chipotle Falls -4% as Same-Store Sales Turn Negative

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Chipotle (CMG) slid 4% after reporting its first same-store sales decline (-0.4%) since the pandemic. Q1 revenue of $2.88B missed expectations as transactions fell 2.3%, with average check growth of just 1.9% failing to offset traffic losses. CEO Scott Boatwright blamed “a more nervous consumer” and tariff-driven inflation, particularly on imported avocados. The chain lowered its full-year same-store sales forecast to low-single digits and warned Q2 margins will take a 20bps hit from tariffs. Higher inflation expectations for the second half prompted management to emphasize cost controls and targeted marketing, including new summer offerings. While net income rose to $386.6M, investor sentiment remains cautious as foot traffic stalls and tariff-related headwinds mount.

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Corporate America Sounds the Alarm on Tariffs, Forecasts Slashed

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A wave of U.S. companies—from Chipotle to P&G—are scaling back 2025 guidance as Trump’s tariff policy tightens margins and spooks consumers. Procter & Gamble, PepsiCo, and Hasbro all warned of potential price hikes, while airlines like Delta and American pulled forecasts entirely. CEO commentary cited supply chain strain, demand uncertainty, and price-sensitive consumers already reducing discretionary spending. The 10% baseline tariff, along with the 145% China-specific rate, is hitting commodities from aluminum to avocados and putting inflation back on the radar. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted at de-escalation, but firms aren’t waiting. “Tariffs are inherently inflationary,” said P&G’s Jon Moeller, as retailers brace for potential job cuts and rising input costs. With core brands already under pressure and shopper sentiment plunging, Wall Street is watching closely to see if July’s policy review brings relief—or escalation.

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This is not financial advice. All information represent opinions only for informational purposes. Given the vast number of stocks we cover in these reports, assume staff covering stocks have positions in stocks discussed.

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