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September 28th, 2025

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TLDR:

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• The U.S. unleashed the largest tariff wave in months: 100% on pharmaceuticals, 50% on kitchen cabinets, vanities, and furniture, and 25% on heavy trucks—all set to take effect October 1. Effective U.S. tariff rates are now near 80-year highs.
• Markets sold off: investors pulled -$3.8B from U.S. equities last week. Institutions turned net sellers for the first time in three months (-$1.4B), hedge funds extended outflows (-$2.0B after -$2.9B the week prior), and retail logged a third straight week of selling (-$300M).
• Shutdown risk escalated as Trump threatened mass federal firings if no budget deal is reached by October 1. Democrats demanded healthcare subsidies for illegal immigrants, raising the odds of a protracted standoff.
• Inflation data landed as expected: core PCE at 2.9% YoY, headline at 2.7%, steady enough to keep two more Fed cuts this year on the table. Personal spending rose 0.6% in August, while jobless claims came in lower than expected.
• Stocks steadied Friday: the S&P 500 gained 0.6%, Nasdaq +0.4%, Dow +300 points, snapping a 3-day losing streak. Boeing (+3.6%) and banks led, while chipmakers rallied on new U.S. production rules. For the week, though, the S&P fell 0.3%, Nasdaq dropped 0.7%, and the Dow ended flat.
• Gold stayed strong near record highs as tariffs and shutdown risk drove safe-haven demand, while silver and miners tracked higher.

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Government Shutdown: Market Impact

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What’s different this time

Shutdowns usually mean temporary furloughs. This time, the White House has threatened permanent layoffs of non-essential workers, raising the stakes. Essential services (military, law enforcement, Social Security checks) keep running, but pay is delayed. Museums, parks, data releases, and most agency approvals will stop. That means disruptions ripple into markets and specific stocks.

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Likely Winners

• Gold & miners (SSRM, NEM, WPM) — Investors hedge with safe-haven assets; shutdown headlines can extend the rally.
• Consumer staples (POST, PG, GIS, K) — People still buy food and basics regardless of politics; stability attracts flows.
• Utilities (AEP, DUK, SO) — Defensive demand stays steady, with dividends offering safety in volatility.
• Waste services (WM, RSG, WCN) — If municipal services freeze, more business flows to private operators.

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Likely Losers

• Airlines & travel (AAL, DAL, UAL, LUV): TSA/ATC officers working unpaid → more delays, higher cancellation risk, unhappy flyers.
• Homebuilders & housing (LEN, DHI, HD, LOW): HUD programs and federal mortgage approvals stall, softening sentiment.
• Gov't contractors (LMT, NOC, RTX, GD, HII, BAH, ICFI, CACI) — Ongoing sustainment continues, but new contracts, R&D programs, and civilian DoD support face delays.

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Shutdowns don’t stop the mission; they freeze the money flow.

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U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund: Lithium & Antimony Are Now “National-Interest” Metals

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What just happened?

• Lithium Americas (LAC): Washington is in talks to take up to a 10% stake while renegotiating the $2.3B DOE loan for Thacker Pass (NV). Translation: the U.S. isn’t just financing a key lithium project—it may own a slice to make sure it gets built.
• United States Antimony (UAMY): The Pentagon awarded a sole-source, five-year contract (up to $245M) to deliver antimony metal into the national defense stockpile—putting the only active U.S. smelters to work now.
• Perpetua Resources (PPTA): Our L2 trade closed for a big gain. Stibnite (ID) is one of the largest U.S. antimony resources and already has $59.2M in DoD DPA Title III support. It’s the mine-side complement to UAMY’s smelting-side capacity.

Why this matters?

• Lithium powers batteries for​ EVs, bases, drones, and the grid.
• Antimony is needed for ammo primers, hard alloys, and electronics fire safety.
• China controls much of the antimony chain. The U.S. is shifting from simple funding to ​taking equity stakes and signing long contracts so supply is guaranteed at home.

Who could be next?

Nuclear & Power Backbone

• BWX Technologies (BWXT): Builds the nuclear cores for Navy subs and carriers. Without BWXT, the nuclear fleet doesn’t run.
• Centrus (LEU): The only U.S. source for HALEU enrichment—fuel for advanced/microreactors. Guarantees reactor fuel.
• Constellation (CEG): Largest U.S. nuclear operator; steady, carbon-free base power for bases and data centers.
• Oklo (OKLO): Microreactors for secure/remote sites. A small stake could accelerate pilots on bases.

Critical Minerals & Materials

• Albemarle (ALB): Largest U.S. lithium producer—equity helps expand conversion onshore.
• MP Materials (MP): Rare earths for magnets (missiles, jets). The U.S. already took a 15% stake in the company.
• Freeport-McMoRan (FCX): Copper is the wire in everything—from munitions to the grid.
• Nucor (NUE) / Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF): U.S. steel for armor, ships, transformers; stakes can target defense-grade output.

Defense Primes & Systems

• Huntington Ingalls (HII): Only builder of U.S. nuclear carriers; also subs. A small stake helps keep yard throughput on schedule.
• Northrop (NOC) / RTX / General Dynamics (GD) / Boeing (BA): Bombers, missiles, subs, tankers—equity supports surge capacity in conflict.

Chips & Secure Compute

• Intel --> U.S. already took a stake in it.

Comms & Cyber

• Iridium (IRDM) / Viasat (VSAT): Satellite links that work when ground networks fail—guarantees priority access in crises.

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Last Week's Stock Market Performance

Over the past week, the S&P 500 Index experienced a modest decline of 0.31%. Among the sectors, Energy stood out with the strongest performance, gaining 3.92%, while Utilities followed with a solid increase of 2.19%, and Real Estate saw a slight uptick of 0.07%. In contrast, most sectors posted losses, with Materials suffering the steepest drop at 2.19%, Consumer Staples declining by 1.79%, Health Care falling 1.30%, Communication Services decreasing 1.04%, Financials slipping 0.72%, Consumer Discretionary dropping 0.70%, Industrials edging down 0.35%, and Technology showing a minimal decrease of just 0.03%. Bitcoin fell -2% while Ethereum dropped nearly -3.5% on fears the Fed will not cut rates as much as expected.

Xcel Energy Inc (XEL) led with a 9.94% increase. NextEra Energy Inc (NEE) followed closely at 6.71% up, while Sempra (SRE) advanced 6.48%, and NiSource Inc (NI) climbed 5.58%. Halliburton Co (HAL) topped the list with an 11.55% surge. EQT Corporation (EQT) gained 9.90%, Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) rose 9.05%, and Devon Energy Corp (DVN) increased 8.92%.

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Upcoming Events This Week

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This week’s market focus will be on U.S. labor data, with nonfarm payrolls expected to rise by 39K, the unemployment rate holding at 4.3%, and wages growing 0.3%. Alongside the headline jobs report, investors will watch ADP private payrolls, JOLTS job openings, and Challenger job cuts for confirmation of labor market cooling. The risk of a government shutdown on October 1 also looms large, potentially disrupting federal operations and adding to volatility. Key growth indicators are due as well, including ISM manufacturing and services PMIs, consumer confidence, factory orders, and home price data.

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Company News

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LevelFields AI Stock Alerts Last Week

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Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) +11.7% on Activist Stake

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Acadia popped nearly 12% in a single day after an activist investor disclosed a 3% stake and called for a board refresh. The move signals pressure for governance changes and potential strategic shifts, giving the stock fresh momentum.

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Pfizer Gets into Weight Loss Game

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Pfizer (PFE.NaE) said Monday that it will acquire weight-loss drug manufacturer Metsera (MTSR.NaE) for approximately $4.9 billion to expand its portfolio in obesity and cardiometabolic diseases. Shares of Metsera soared 58% on the news.

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Kenvue Stock Slumps as Trump Links Tylenol to Autism

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Kenvue (KVUE), the Johnson & Johnson spinoff behind Tylenol, sank more than 7% this week after the Dept. of Health and Human Services suggested a link between acetaminophen use during pregnancy and autism. The agency announced plans to update warning labels and advise doctors against recommending Tylenol for pregnant women. Left-leaning media outlets are downplaying the risks, but right-leaning media is citing a series of studies and one meta-analysis that showed links between Autism and Tylenol.
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Kenvue is already facing class-action lawsuits from families alleging Tylenol use during pregnancy caused autism and ADHD, citing various studies.  
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A court appeals hearing will happen Oct. 6th regarding a lawsuit against Kenvue linking Tylenol to Autism. If the judge overturns a lower court ruling to dismiss the lawsuit, it will open a floodgate of new lawsuits and plaintiffs against Kenvue. Few will want to be holding the stock thereafter.  Tylenol generates around $1 billion annually for Kenvue, meaning a collapse in consumer trust combined with legal damages could jeopardize its earnings power. KVUE stock dropped -10.5% on the news.

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What's LevelFields' Premium Membership Provide?

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This is not financial advice. All information represent opinions only for informational purposes. Given the vast number of stocks we cover in these reports, assume staff covering stocks have positions in stocks discussed.

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Have feedback or a request for specific data? Drop us a note at support@levelfields.ai