‍

Macrosynthesis

‍

TLDR: Markets Rally as War Pauses, Growth Slows, and Populism Surges

‍

Markets climbed to the edge of all-time highs this week, riding a wave of tech strength and dovish Fed bets despite cracks forming beneath the surface. The much-anticipated Israel–Iran ceasefire was delayed past Trump’s deadline, but his decision to hold fire calmed nerves and sent the S&P 500 surging. By Thursday, the rally brushed record territory—only to hit turbulence after Q1 GDP was revised down to –0.5%, signaling consumer fatigue and softening growth.

‍

Meanwhile, Trump reignited trade tensions, abruptly ending negotiations with Canada and vowing fresh tariffs over its digital services tax, even as the July 9th global tariff deadline loomed. Over the weekend, the Senate advanced Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill”—a sweeping $4.2 trillion tax-and-spend package—as Republican infighting left its fate uncertain. With earnings season approaching and inflation data due, investors now face a precarious setup: high hopes, low volatility, and a powder keg of unresolved macro and political risks.

‍

Trump’s Tax Bill Advances Amid GOP Drama and Last-Minute Deals

‍

After a midnight rewrite and high-stakes hallway negotiations, Senate Republicans narrowly advanced President Trump’s $4.2 trillion “Big Beautiful Bill” over its first procedural hurdle late Saturday. The vote passed 51–49, with Senators Rand Paul and Thom Tillis defecting and Vice President JD Vance standing by in case of a tie. GOP leaders are now racing to pass the full bill before the July 4 deadline.
‍

The new draft includes a flurry of late concessions to rally support: a $25 billion rural hospital fund to placate Medicaid holdouts like Sen. Susan Collins; an expansion of nutrition waivers for Alaska; a whaling tax break for Murkowski; and a delay of stricter Medicaid provider tax rules to 2032. The SALT cap was temporarily raised to $40,000, and tax breaks for seniors, tipped workers, and car buyers were added—while a previously controversial “revenge tax” on foreign firms was quietly removed after Wall Street pushed back.
‍

Elon Musk blasted the bill as “utterly insane,” warning it rewards “industries of the past” while crushing clean tech and risking “millions of lost jobs.” His ire was aimed at provisions that slash renewable energy incentives and abruptly end the EV tax credit this fall. Senate Democrats, meanwhile, are forcing the entire 940-page bill to be read aloud on the floor—an hours-long procedural delay tactic—before debate even begins.
‍

Once that reading concludes, the real showdown begins: a legislative blitz known as a vote-a-rama, where senators can offer unlimited amendments in rapid-fire succession. Though each amendment must be voted on, there’s no debate—just straight up-or-down votes, often stretching deep into the night. Republicans will use the window to patch internal rifts; Democrats aim to weaponize it to extract political pain.
‍

The final vote could come as soon as Monday morning. Until then, the bill remains fluid—and every amendment could tip the fragile majority needed to move it forward.

‍

Trump’s Fed Pressure Campaign Escalates as Growth Weakens

‍

With his “Big Beautiful Bill” advancing in the Senate, Trump renewed attacks on the Fed, vowing to fire Jerome Powell if reelected and install a dovish chair to slash rates. “We should be paying 1% right now,” Trump said, claiming the move would save over $600B annually.
‍

At his House testimony, Powell resisted political pressure, saying the Fed won't commit to a July cut and is watching June and July CPI closely. He hinted that tariff pass-through could be “less than we think,” signaling openness to easing if inflation stays muted.
‍

Powell also pushed back on broader critiques, defending the dollar’s global dominance despite April’s Treasury market stress and calling “decline of the dollar” fears premature. He warned federal borrowing is unsustainable—“no one knows where the tipping point is”—but distanced the Fed from political debates on tax, housing, and immigration, saying those are outside its control.
‍

Markets took the remarks as dovish: 2-year yields fell to 3.82%, and odds of a September cut rose to 70%. But with Trump calling Powell “a very stupid person,” monetary independence—and the trajectory of rates—remains in the political crosshairs.

‍

GDP Contraction Amplifies the Stakes

‍

Revised Q1 GDP came in at –0.5%, marking the first contraction since the pandemic and signaling a sharp slowdown in consumer strength. Real personal consumption rose just 0.5%—well below the prior 1.2%—with travel, recreation, and financial services all revised lower. Services, once a growth pillar, contributed only 0.3 points to GDP as spending on recreation turned negative.
‍

May’s PCE report reinforced the trend: real consumption fell 0.3%—the steepest drop of 2025—amid declines in dining, transport, and international travel. Wage growth held at +0.4%, but disposable income dipped and the savings rate slid to 4.5%. While core PCE stayed soft at +0.2%, the overall data signals that consumers may struggle to absorb ongoing price pressures—especially with tariffs expected to hit harder this summer. The result: renewed pressure on the Fed to cut.

‍

Cutting Rates + Big, Beautiful Bill = Inflation Risk Cocktail

‍

If the Fed cuts rates just as Trump’s $4.2T “Big Beautiful Bill” floods the economy, inflation risks could reaccelerate. The bill front-loads $2.2T in borrowing over five years—well before any fiscal offsets begin—potentially boosting disposable income as tariffs raise prices and labor markets remain tight. Morgan Stanley projects the 2026 deficit will hit 7.1% of GDP even without monetary easing.
‍

This policy mismatch—looser rates paired with deficit-driven demand—threatens to reverse disinflation. Though GDP just turned negative and consumption is weakening, fiscal stimulus layered atop easier Fed policy could trigger a renewed inflation spike. Powell has warned federal debt is unsustainable and tariff pass-through remains a wild card. If the Fed cuts too soon, it risks fueling demand and falling into a new policy trap.

‍

‍

The Housing Market Is Cracking

‍

Active listings of homes for sale are up 300% since 2022 in Florida - known to be a bellwhether for the broader housing market. Likewise, listings are up 100% in Washington D.C. and 400% in Texas. Rising inventory cools housing prices by providing competition amongst sellers.

‍

Mamdani’s Victory: Populism from Below, Panic from Above

‍

Zohran Mamdani’s unexpected victory in the New York Democratic mayoral primary sent shockwaves through financial markets—and for good reason. Running on a platform of rent control, public housing, free transit, and state-run groceries, Mamdani didn’t just defeat Andrew Cuomo. He cracked the political firewall that has long protected capital’s dominance in the city.
‍

Wall Street took notice. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) with NYC exposure tumbled. Goldman Sachs’ New York real estate basket dropped over 4% overnight. Hedge funds with concentrated multifamily exposure triggered emergency calls. Behind the headlines: a rising populist movement with deep roots in millennial economic frustration—priced out, indebted, and fed up.
‍

Mamdani’s rise isn’t ideological—it’s financial. A generation crushed by rent inflation and wage stagnation is turning to democratic socialism as a survival strategy. And parts of the professional class—junior analysts, fintech workers, even Wall Street interns—are quietly sympathetic.
‍

Markets have been pricing in political continuity. Mamdani’s win forces a reassessment. The buffer of cheap credit and rising asset values can no longer suppress discontent. If this populist wave grows, real estate, utilities, and private equity firms reliant on pricing power and public-private rent extraction may face increasing political risk. What seemed unthinkable is now priced into volatility spreads—and for capital, that's a problem.

‍

‍

Tariff Countdown: July 9 Looms Amid Fractured Deals and Rising Risk

‍

Trump’s trade regime is barreling toward a July 9 deadline, when suspended tariffs of 25%–50% are set to snap back on nearly 60 countries. While the U.S. has finalized deals with the U.K. and China and is close with Mexico and India, others—including Canada and the EU—face rising pressure or stalled talks.
‍

Trump warned countries will soon get letters detailing “what they have to pay,” and may shorten the timeline at will. Treasury Secretary Bessent said extensions are possible for major partners, with a goal of securing 10–12 deals by Labor Day.
‍

Tensions spiked after Canada moved forward with a 3% digital services tax, prompting the U.S. to suspend talks and launch a Section 301 review—a trade enforcement tool that allows tariffs without multilateral approval and was last used against China in 2018.
‍

The administration is racing to divide compliant allies from tariff targets, but many deals remain vague or partial. China’s agreement includes fentanyl enforcement, while the U.K.'s leaves key sectors unresolved. Bessent acknowledged some deals may take months.
‍

Despite the uncertainty, the White House is touting surging tariff revenues: June alone brought in nearly $27 billion, putting the U.S. on pace for a $30B+ monthly run rate and over $121B this fiscal year. With new hikes still on the table, markets face asymmetric risks as Trump reengineers global trade with blunt instruments and little warning.

‍

‍

Last Week's Market Performance
‍

The S&P 500 climbed +3.4% to 6,173, posting its best week since May and closing at a new all-time high. The Nasdaq surged +4.3% and the Dow jumped +3.8%, as easing geopolitical and trade risks unleashed risk-on sentiment.
‍

Momentum shifted after a U.S.-China trade agreement finalized Friday slashed tariffs and reopened rare earth exports, while a ceasefire between Israel and Iran drove oil prices down sharply—easing inflation fears. Earlier in the week, Q1 GDP was revised lower, and core PCE came in slightly hot, but Powell maintained a wait-and-see stance in his semiannual testimony, cooling expectations for a July cut.
‍

Sectors: Tech (+4.7%) and Discretionary (+4.4%) led, while Energy (-3.5%) lagged on collapsing crude. Telecom surged (+6.2%) as rate pressure eased.
‍

Commodities: WTI oil fell -12.6% to $65.52/bbl. Gold dropped -2.5% to $3,302/oz. Natural gas slid -4.9%.
‍

Top Gainers: Nike (+20%) after upbeat guidance despite tariff headwinds; Arista (+15%), Carnival (+15%), Coinbase (+15%), Albemarle (+15%)
‍

Laggards: Equinix (-11%), CF Industries (-9%), Halliburton (-8%), Occidental (-7%), APA (-7%)

‍

Upcoming Events This Week

‍

This week, markets will closely watch U.S. trade talks ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline, signaling the end of the 90-day pause. Investor focus will also turn to the ECB Central Bank Forum, where Fed Chair Powell and other global policymakers will provide monetary outlooks.
‍

In the U.S., June jobs data is expected to show continued labor market softening, with nonfarm payrolls forecast at +129K and unemployment steady at 4.2%. Wage growth is projected to slow to 0.3%. Other key releases include JOLTS, ADP, ISM PMIs, trade balance, and factory orders.

‍

‍

‍

Company News

‍

LevelFields AI Stock Alerts Last Week

‍

Bumble (BMBL) +25% on Major Workforce Reduction

‍

Bumble surged 25% in a single day after announcing plans to lay off 30% of its global workforce. The aggressive cost-cutting move signaled a major restructuring push aimed at improving profitability and restoring investor confidence after a prolonged downturn in user growth and engagement. Markets responded swiftly, pricing in higher margin potential and leaner operations ahead of upcoming earnings.

‍

VNET +18.1% After $50M Buyback Announcement

‍

VNET Group (VNET) jumped 18.1% after the company authorized a new share repurchase program of up to $50 million—nearly 15% of its market capitalization. The move, aimed at enhancing shareholder value and signaling balance sheet strength, comes as the Chinese data center firm seeks to stabilize investor sentiment amid ongoing privatization speculation and sector volatility.

‍

Tesla +8% as Robotaxi Dream Goes Live, Faith Still Drives Valuation

‍

Tesla surged 8% after launching its long-awaited robotaxi service in Austin, offering limited, invite-only rides with a safety monitor on board. LevelFields users were alerted ahead of the move via the Tesla Product Launch scenario—highlighting a key catalyst in Elon Musk’s broader push to monetize autonomy.
‍

The rollout marks a pivotal step in Tesla’s strategy, with analysts like RBC attributing over $800B of its notional value to future robotaxi and Full Self Driving (FSD) licensing revenue. However, the launch vehicles appear to include new sensors and enhanced telecom hardware—raising questions about the scalability of Tesla’s “every car is a robotaxi” promise.
‍

Regulatory scrutiny has already begun following traffic violations caught on video, and the launch now invites comparison to Waymo’s more mature network. Still, the event starts the clock on Tesla proving out its robotaxi economics. For now, with a 140x earnings multiple, the stock remains driven more by belief than delivery.

‍

Cyngn Taps NVIDIA to Power Next-Gen Industrial Autonomy at Automatica

‍

Cyngn (CYN) drew fresh attention after showcasing its DriveMod-powered autonomous vehicles at Automatica 2025 in partnership with NVIDIA. Built on the Isaac robotics platform, Cyngn’s solutions—already operating in real warehouses and logistics yards—aim to slash labor costs, reduce accidents, and boost throughput.

‍

Unlike flashy consumer AVs, Cyngn’s tugger and forklift platforms focus on ROI. The DriveMod Tugger (12,000 lbs capacity) promises a payback period of less than two years, requiring no infrastructure overhauls. CEO Lior Tal emphasized their low-barrier deployment model and real-world results, targeting manufacturers and 3PLs hit hardest by labor shortages.

‍

Coinbase Tops S&P 500 in June as Stablecoin Tailwinds Accelerate

‍

Coinbase (COIN) is the top-performing S&P 500 stock in June, soaring 43% as investors shift focus from crypto speculation to real-world applications like stablecoins and payments. The rally builds on its recent index inclusion, a wave of favorable legislation, and the explosive debut of Circle on the NYSE.
‍

Momentum grew after the U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Act, giving the Treasury authority to regulate stablecoins and paving the way for broader financial adoption. Analysts highlight Coinbase’s deep integration with Circle’s USDC, which provides recurring revenue without operational overhead—making Coinbase a leveraged bet on the stablecoin ecosystem’s expansion.
‍

New partnerships with American Express, Shopify, and JPMorgan are extending Coinbase’s reach into e-commerce and traditional finance. While core trading volumes remain a risk, institutional interest and policy clarity are driving a narrative shift—from crypto as speculation to crypto as infrastructure. If that view holds, Coinbase could still have significant upside ahead.

‍

‍

Bumble Swipes Left on Employees, Rallies 30%

‍

Tesla's Robotaxi Launch - How it Really Went

‍

Lockheed Martin's Having a Great Year

‍

‍

This is not financial advice. All information represent opinions only for informational purposes. Given the vast number of stocks we cover in these reports, assume staff covering stocks have positions in stocks discussed.
‍

Have feedback or a request for specific data? Drop us a note at support@levelfields.ai

‍