‍

Macrosynthesis

‍

TLDR: Week of Whiplash—From Downgrade to Deadline

‍

Markets stumbled out of the gate as Moody’s cut the U.S.’s last AAA credit rating and Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” barely scraped through the House. Midweek brought fresh pain: a weak 20-year Treasury auction sent yields jumping and stocks tumbling in their worst drop since April. By Friday, Trump escalated pressure on trade, threatening a 50% tariff on EU goods unless a deal is reached by July 9. But on Sunday, he reversed course, delaying the tariff deadline, offering markets a temporary reprieve. Still, the week closed lower—dragged down by fiscal alarm bells, bond volatility, and unresolved trade tensions.

‍

Rate Stress Meets Rally Exhaustion: A Week Where Bulls Bluffed and Bonds Called

‍

The past week wasn’t just a clash between macro and momentum—it was a textbook case of headline whiplash. Markets initially buckled under the weight of fiscal reality, with Moody’s downgrade and an unenthusiastic 20-year Treasury auction exposing low appetite for long dated bonds.

‍

Treasury Auction Explained
‍

A Treasury auction is when the U.S. government issues bonds to fund spending, held regularly—weekly for short-term bills, and monthly or quarterly for longer maturities like 10- or 30-year bonds. Buyers include foreign central banks, pension funds, hedge funds, banks, and even the Federal Reserve. Strong demand keeps bond prices and yields stable, while weak demand send bond prices lower and rates higher, tightening financial conditions. So when auctions flop, it signals concern about U.S. debt levels—pushing yields up and shaking markets, especially rate-sensitive stocks. Simply put: poor auctions = higher yields = market stress.
‍

That crack in demand sent 30-year yields soaring past 5.1%, a level last hit in 2007, pulling equities lower. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed deficit risks—calming nerves just enough to trigger a market bounce.
‍

Still, the message from bond traders was loud and clear: we can't ignore deficits anymore. While Bessent’s pitch of “3% deficits by 2028” and tariff revenue magic may buy time, the drift in long-end rates says investors aren't buying it yet. As Goldman traders noted, this market is now ruled by the long end. Deeper government spending cuts by the Trump administration and Congress could turn things around, but it will take a few stubborn Senators to do this to the current so called "Big Beautiful Bill."

‍

Buy-the-Dip Exhaustion? Retail Keeps Charging, Smart Money Gets Defensive

‍

‍

Even amid the volatility, the rally continued. Retail investors poured $4.1B into U.S. stocks during Monday’s post-downgrade selloff—the largest three-hour surge on record. While some some hedge funds have been quietly leaning short, others, like Bill Ackman, are going all in on perceived undervalued stocks like Google.  On the other side, famed investor Michael Burry is running shorts on Nvidia.  

‍

With buybacks peaking and Q2 earnings still weeks away, markets face a vacuum of catalysts. Friday’s tariff headlines briefly shook confidence, but even that couldn’t keep the S&P from clinging to key technical levels. Yet the backdrop is shifting. Bond yields are no longer just a sideshow—they’re setting the tone.

‍

Retail may be buying weakness, but institutions are watching macro risk build. If the next inflation print or trade flare-up hits wrong, the nascent bull market that added 20% to the S&P 500 in two months may finally run out of steam.

‍

Debt Spiral Accelerates — Trump's 'Big, Beautiful Bill' Adds Fuel

‍

Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” isn’t just a tax cut extension—it’s a possible fiscal bomb. Here's what's in it:

‍

• Permanently extends 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act’s lower income tax rates, increasing take-home pay for families.
• Eliminates taxes on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security benefits, boosting worker income.
• Raises standard deduction by $1,000 (to $16,000 for individuals), providing modest relief.
• Increases State and Local Tax (SALT) cap to $40,000 in 2025, phasing out for incomes over $500,000, benefiting wealthier households.
• Expands Child Tax Credit and introduces a $1,000 one-time credit for children born 2025–2028, costing $17 billion through 2034.
• Reintroduces 100% expensing for equipment and R&D investments, encouraging business growth
• Allows interest deductions for American-made car purchases, supporting auto industry.
• Limits food stamps to children under 7 and defunds Meals on Wheels and food banks, reducing social safety nets.
• Phases out Inflation Reduction Act subsidies, with delayed Medicaid work requirements starting in 2029
• Expands logging in national forests by 25%, bypassing environmental reviews.

‍

Critics of the bill argue it adds over $3 Trillion over 10 years to the U.S. debt, without accounting for any additional government savings from DOGE or additional revenues from the sale of government assets.

‍

‍

‍

Sunday Reprieve: Trump Delays Tariffs—Markets Breathe, But Risks Remain

‍

‍

After a call with EU Commission President von der Leyen, Trump agreed Sunday to delay the 50% tariffs on EU goods announced just a few days ago until July 9, reinstating the original negotiation window. He called it a “very nice call”—but the stakes remain high.
‍

Markets rallied on the news: European stocks rebounded, the euro hit a monthly high, and autos, banks, and luxury names led the bounce. Still, the underlying conflict is unresolved.
‍

The EU seeks a broad, reciprocal deal. Trump wants unilateral concessions, especially in high-tech manufacturing, using tariffs to force reshoring. The U.S.–EU trade deficit has doubled, fueled by front-loaded imports ahead of deadlines, and Trump’s broader frustration includes EU lawsuits targeting U.S. tech and AI firms.

‍

‍

‍

Sweden Signals Shift as Europe Regains Momentum

‍

In a sign of discomfort with U.S. policy, Swedish retail investors are moving out of U.S. stocks and into domestic and European names. Long seen as early movers, Swedish investors may be front-running a broader reallocation. European equities are up 24% YTD.

‍

Why Europe Could Keep Running

‍

• Fund flows into EU equities are rising, still well below 2021 highs.
• Valuations remain attractive vs. U.S. tech-heavy benchmarks.
• The ECB has more easing room, and German fiscal support adds cushion.

Sweden’s pivot could be the leading indicator of a broader trend. With U.S. risks mounting, the relative case for Europe is gaining steam.
‍

*The chart below shows a sharp surge in 1-month flows into European equities in early 2025—led primarily by ETFs—marking the strongest inflows since 2021 and signaling renewed investor interest in the region.*

‍

‍

New Home Sales Surprise to the Upside

‍

New U.S. single-family home sales jumped 10.9% in April to 743,000—highest since Feb 2022—driven by builder incentives and price cuts, especially in the South (+11.7%) and Midwest (+35.5%). The median price fell 2% YoY to $407,200 as builders targeted affordability amid 7% mortgage rates and rising economic anxiety.
‍

But optimism is tempered: prior months saw sharp downward revisions, and inventory remains high at 504,000 units—near 2007 levels.

‍

Make America Health Again Roadmap Revealed by HHS Chief, Kennedy

‍

‍

The Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) Commission Report, released by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) on May 22, 2025, targets the rising tide of childhood chronic diseases, spotlighting ultra-processed foods, environmental toxins, and pharmaceutical overreach as key culprits.  
‍

The report confronts a dire reality that's been known by public health officials but never addressed as a Presidential priority before: 1 in 5 children over 6 years old are obese (a 270% surge since the 1970s), 1 in 4 teens are pre-diabetic (doubling in two decades), and childhood cancer is up nearly 40% since 1975. Autism affects 1 in 31 children, teen depression doubled from 2009 to 2019, and there's been an 88% rise in food allergies from 1997 to 2018.
‍

The report’s critique of processed foods, including additives like sugar and food dyes, will pressure major food and beverage companies, such as PepsiCo, Coke, Archer Daniels, General Mills and Kraft Heinz, as scrutiny and regulation of unhealthy products intensifies. Similarly, its call for reassessing chemical exposures—naming pesticides like glyphosate and “forever chemicals” like PFOAs—may impact agribusiness giants like Monsanto (Bayer) and chemical manufacturers like 3M. Investors in these sectors should brace for regulatory shifts or consumer backlash. Though the report stops short of proposing specific bans at this time, its architect, RFK Jr, spent a lifetime as a Democratic environmental lawyer suing General Electric, Ford, nuclear power companies, and Monsanto in varying lawsuits for pollution on behalf of victims. We can certainly expect heavy oversight coming.
‍

On the flip side, the MAHA report opens opportunities for growth in health-focused industries. Its emphasis on promoting wholesome, nutrient-rich foods could boost companies in organic and natural food markets, such as Whole Foods (Amazon) or smaller players like Sprouts Farmers Market. However, the report’s skepticism toward the childhood vaccine schedule and certain medications, like SSRIs, could unsettle pharmaceutical giants like Pfizer or Moderna, or emerging players like HIMS.

‍

Last Week's Market Performance

‍

Markets slid across the board as Trump’s multi-trillion-dollar “One Big Beautiful Bill” passed the House by just one vote, with not a single Democrat voting in favor.  The S&P 500 dropped -2.6%, the Nasdaq -2.5%, and the Dow -2.5%, with volatility spiking +29%. Energy (-4.4%), Tech (-3.5%), and Financials (-3.1%) led sector declines.
‍

Bitcoin hit a record $111K (+5%) on regulatory momentum, while gold soared +5.6%. Top S&P gainers included GE Vernova (+8%) and Dollar General (+8%); biggest losers were Fair Isaac (-23%) and Enphase (-21%).

‍

Upcoming Events This Week

‍

Key economic releases will include April durable goods orders, house price indices, and personal spending data—culminating in Thursday’s Q1 GDP revision and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, Core PCE. Also in view: consumer sentiment from Michigan and ISM manufacturing data to close the week.

Earnings season continues with heavy hitters: Nvidia’s Wednesday release is the centerpiece, expected to show 66% YoY revenue growth. Salesforce, Dell, Costco, and Marvell also report, alongside retailers like Macy’s, Gap, and Ulta Beauty. Nvidia’s Blackwell chip momentum and Salesforce’s AI positioning will be closely watched for guidance on enterprise and AI capex trends.

‍

‍

‍

‍

Company News

‍

LevelFields AI Stock Alerts Last Week

‍

KindlyMD Extends Bitcoin Rally, Up +100% This Week, +1200% in May

‍

KindlyMD surged another 100% this week after shareholders formally approved its merger with Nakamoto Holdings, a Bitcoin-native company. The deal, finalized via written consent on May 18, accelerates the rollout of KindlyMD’s crypto-backed treasury model for healthcare. With David Bailey at the helm and mounting retail momentum, KDLY has now gained 1,200% this month—cementing its position as a breakout play at the intersection of Bitcoin and healthtech.

‍

Atour (ATAT) Pops +8% on $400M Buyback and Dividend Boost

‍

Atour Lifestyle Holdings jumped 8% after announcing a $400M three-year share repurchase program and a $0.42 per ADS dividend. The move follows strong Q1 earnings and underscores Atour’s confidence in its cash position, with $434M in reserves. As China’s top upper-midscale hotel chain, the company aims to reward shareholders while scaling its scenario-based retail model and expanding its 1,727-hotel portfolio.

‍

Uranium Stocks Surge After Trump Signs Nuclear Executive Order

‍

Nuclear stocks soared after President Trump signed a sweeping executive order to overhaul the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and accelerate the deployment of next-generation reactors. The executive order slashes red tape and imposes hard deadlines—18 months for new reactor approvals and 12 months for license renewals. It calls for fixed application fees, faster approvals of DOE- and DOD-tested reactor designs, and streamlined licensing pathways for modular and microreactors. Trump specifically criticized the NRC’s “risk-averse culture” and outdated radiation standards, framing the overhaul as key to U.S. energy security and global nuclear dominance.
‍

The order sets a bold target: quadrupling U.S. nuclear capacity to 400 GW by 2050. It also establishes frameworks for deploying reactors on federal land, reviving dormant plants, and jump-starting domestic uranium mining and enrichment—moves that directly benefit companies like Oklo, which is developing microreactors, and uranium suppliers like Cameco.
‍

Industry leaders, including Oklo CEO Jacob DeWitte and Constellation CEO Joe Dominguez, joined Trump at the Oval Office signing ceremony, signaling White House alignment with nuclear innovators. The announcement marks the most aggressive pro-nuclear regulatory pivot in decades, positioning U.S. firms to lead the global race in advanced reactor deployment.

‍

Advance Auto Parts (+38%) Rallies on Strong Q1 Beat

‍

Advance Auto Parts (AAP) surged 38% after posting a smaller-than-expected Q1 loss ($0.22 adj. EPS vs. est. -$0.78) and better-than-forecast revenue of $2.58B (–6.8% YoY). The company reaffirmed full-year EPS guidance of $1.50–$2.50 on $8.4–$8.6B in revenue—even assuming tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada stay in place all year.
‍

CEO cited strong execution in the pro installer segment (8 weeks of comp sales growth), rapid store closures (513 locations), and improved vendor coordination as key drivers. Tariff mitigation actions and operational efficiencies are helping protect margins.

‍

Discretionary Divide: Youth Retail Booms While High-End Spending Slows

‍

Urban Outfitters (URBN) is thriving amid shifting retail currents. Q1 sales rose 10.7% YoY and EPS surged 78%, fueled by strong performance across Free People, Anthropologie, and a 59% increase in Nuuly subscriptions. Foot traffic remains robust, particularly among Gen Z shoppers drawn to affordable, trend-forward fashion. The stock is up 33% YTD, riding a wave of identity-driven, fast-turn consumer spending—often with parental support.
‍

But the picture looks different at the higher end of discretionary retail. Williams-Sonoma (WSM), a staple of premium home décor, also beat on earnings, yet comparable brand sales were flat, West Elm comps fell 2.2%, and margins compressed amid rising inventory. Despite top-line growth, the stock is down 15.6% YTD, reflecting concerns about demand for big-ticket home purchases.
‍

This divergence echoes broader pressure in luxury. LVMH is down 25% YTD, facing its steepest decline since 2008. The luxury conglomerate—home to Louis Vuitton, Dior, and Fendi—has been hit by weakening demand in China and looming U.S. tariffs. Chanel and Kering are also seeing profit erosion, with the luxury sector facing post-boom normalization and fading appetite for status-driven goods.
‍

Discretionary spending isn’t dead—but it’s fragmenting. Retailers like URBN that offer accessible, high-turnover products tied to self-expression are thriving. Meanwhile, premium-tier brands—whether in fashion or home goods—are seeing softer demand as consumers balk at price tags, trade down, or redirect spending. Comparing URBN and WSM is a lens on how price elasticity and generational behavior are reshaping discretionary markets.

‍

‍

Trump Unveils Missile Defense Plan

Can Sex Workers Predict a Recession?

Top Defense Stocks to Watch in 2025

‍

‍

This is not financial advice. All information represent opinions only for informational purposes. Given the vast number of stocks we cover in these reports, assume staff covering stocks have positions in stocks discussed.
‍

Have feedback or a request for specific data? Drop us a note at support@levelfields.ai

‍

‍

‍

‍

‍

‍

‍

‍

‍

‍

‍

‍

‍

‍

‍

‍

‍

‍

‍

‍

‍

‍

‍

‍

‍

‍