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All-Time Highs = Higher Risk

S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 all peaked together — a rare setup before historic downturns.

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Stocks, gold, and crypto all hit record highs this week. Momentum can stretch further, but buying at peaks is risky. One red flag: retail investors poured more into stocks last week than in any week since December — a sign they’re being trained to see weaker policy as a guaranteed bull market. Gold’s rally partially stems from the Fed cut: when rates fall, dollars pay less interest, so savers shift into metals, weakening the dollar and boosting gold.

The chart below shows just how rare this moment is: all four major U.S. indexes (S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000) closing at record highs on the same day has only happened a handful of times in 40 years — most often before major volatility or market pullbacks. 2025 just joined that list, underscoring how unusual and fragile this setup is.

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