While Japan struck a deal, Europe is still holding its breath. On Sunday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is set to meet President Trump at his Turnberry resort in Scotland for what may be the EU’s final shot at avoiding sweeping 30% tariffs on exports to the U.S. Negotiators have spent months trying to craft a compromise, reportedly landing on a proposal for 15% tariffs across most sectors—with carveouts for aviation, medical devices, and some industrial goods. But as with past deals, the outcome now hinges on Trump, who has publicly pegged the odds of an agreement at “50-50.”
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The stakes are enormous. Without a deal, the EU is prepared to hit back with matching tariffs on up to €100 billion of U.S. exports, including Boeing aircraft, bourbon, and American-made cars. But retaliation is a blunt tool, and even European officials admit that the real leverage lies with Washington. Beyond tariffs, the two sides are also negotiating over digital trade, defense procurement, and energy partnerships—areas where any concessions could reshape transatlantic relations for years. The EU, like Japan, is learning to navigate a world where access to the U.S. market increasingly comes with strings attached—and the risk of going it alone is rising.