What’s different this time

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Shutdowns usually mean temporary furloughs. This time, the White House has threatened permanent layoffs of non-essential workers, raising the stakes. Essential services (military, law enforcement, Social Security checks) keep running, but pay is delayed. Museums, parks, data releases, and most agency approvals will stop. That means disruptions ripple into markets and specific stocks.

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Likely Winners

• Gold & miners (SSRM, NEM, WPM) — Investors hedge with safe-haven assets; shutdown headlines can extend the rally.
• Consumer staples (POST, PG, GIS, K) — People still buy food and basics regardless of politics; stability attracts flows.
• Utilities (AEP, DUK, SO) — Defensive demand stays steady, with dividends offering safety in volatility.
• Waste services (WM, RSG, WCN) — If municipal services freeze, more business flows to private operators.

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Likely Losers

• Airlines & travel (AAL, DAL, UAL, LUV): TSA/ATC officers working unpaid → more delays, higher cancellation risk, unhappy flyers.
• Homebuilders & housing (LEN, DHI, HD, LOW): HUD programs and federal mortgage approvals stall, softening sentiment.
• Gov't contractors (LMT, NOC, RTX, GD, HII, BAH, ICFI, CACI) — Ongoing sustainment continues, but new contracts, R&D programs, and civilian DoD support face delays.

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Shutdowns don’t stop the mission; they freeze the money flow.

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