It was a modest, event-driven start to the week—typical for a post-earnings lull—but anything but typical by the time Friday hit. After President Trump announced a provisional trade pact with China on Wednesday—including a dramatic 55% tariff on Chinese imports and rare earth export concessions—markets treaded water, eyeing upcoming inflation data and a crucial 30-year Treasury auction. With CPI coming in soft and the bond sale landing smoothly, the setup looked benign. But by Thursday, global risk appetite flipped. A hopeful Truth Social post from Trump on Iran peace talks was quickly overshadowed by breaking headlines: Israel had launched direct strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites, sparking retaliatory barrages. U.S.–Iranian negotiations scheduled for Sunday (the 15th) were abruptly canceled following the attacks.

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Crude oil spiked 7% as fears of a regional escalation gripped energy markets, and by Friday, equities tumbled across the board. The S&P 500 gave back early-week gains, and the MSCI World Index suffered its worst single-day drop since April—reminding investors that in this market, macro headlines move faster than fundamentals.

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Below is an image from Donald Trump’s Truth Social post at 5:09 PM EST — 3 hours and 21 minutes before explosions were reported in Tehran at 8:30 PM EST.

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