The Juneteenth-shortened trading week began with President Trump cutting short his appearance at the G7 to address rising tensions in the Middle East—an ominous sign that left investors uneasy. Though he teased a wait-and-see approach, saying he’d decide “within two weeks” whether to help Israel destroy Iran’s nuclear program, markets spent the week watching the fuse burn. On Saturday night, Trump ordered sweeping strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, deploying Northrop Grumman (NOC)-made stealth bombers and Boeing-made (BA) bunker busters in what he called a “spectacular military success.” The move caught many off guard, given his earlier delay. Iran promised retribution. Oil futures surged. U.S. embassies shuttered.

Meanwhile, the Fed held rates steady at 4.25%–4.5%, signaling two cuts likely before year-end despite elevated inflation projections. Chair Powell emphasized caution and data dependence, pointing to tariff uncertainty, while Governor Waller later floated the possibility of a July cut. Markets briefly rallied on the dovish undercurrent—but sentiment remained brittle.
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For markets, the story shifted fast—from rate cuts to retaliatory threats. Last week was supposed to be about Fed clarity. It ended with war calculus and the threat of oil prices spiking to $120 if Iran engages the U.S. director in war.

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