The economic impact of the conflict is already spreading beyond oil.
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One of the first sectors feeling the shock is fertilizer, which relies heavily on energy. Natural gas is a key ingredient used to produce nitrogen fertilizers, so when energy prices rise, fertilizer prices usually rise as well. At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz is a major shipping route for about one-third of the world’s fertilizer trade, meaning disruptions there can tighten supply just as farmers in the Northern Hemisphere are preparing for spring planting.
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Prices for key fertilizer ingredients like urea, ammonia, sulphur, and phosphates are already moving higher as shipping risks and energy costs ripple through agricultural markets.
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That dynamic could benefit large fertilizer producers such as Mosaic (MOS), CF Industries (CF), and Nutrien (NTR), which are major suppliers of potash and nitrogen fertilizers.
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Industrial metals are now starting to feel the pressure as well.
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On Sunday, the world’s largest single-site aluminum smelter in the Middle East — Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) — cut production by roughly 20% because shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been heavily disrupted. That reduction represents about 2.2% of global aluminum supply, showing how quickly the conflict is beginning to impact industrial production.
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Aluminum production requires enormous amounts of electricity, so energy disruptions and shipping bottlenecks can quickly tighten supply and push prices higher.
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That environment can benefit U.S. producers like Alcoa (AA) and Century Aluminum (CENX) if global aluminum prices continue rising.
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Taken together, these developments show the conflict is no longer just an oil story.
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Energy disruptions are now spreading into fertilizer, industrial metals, food production, and supply chains, widening the economic impact of the crisis far beyond the energy market itself.

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