Beneath the geopolitical headlines, this week’s data continues to point in the same direction: growth is losing momentum while cost pressures are picking back up.
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The labor market is gradually cooling. Job openings—especially in higher-paying sectors like professional and business services—have fallen meaningfully from their peak, and hiring has become more uneven. Companies are no longer expanding aggressively; instead, they are slowing hiring and focusing on cost control.
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At the same time, price pressures tied to energy are starting to show up more clearly in the real economy. The recent surge in airfares across major international routes is one example of how quickly higher fuel costs are being passed through, reinforcing the risk that inflation stabilizes at higher levels rather than continuing to move lower.
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Growth data is softening alongside this. Manufacturing has been relatively stable, but services activity is weakening, and overall economic growth is tracking closer to low single-digit levels. Businesses are responding by becoming more cautious—adjusting inventories, managing expenses, and preparing for a more uncertain demand environment.
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This creates a difficult backdrop. Slower growth would typically support easier policy, but persistent cost pressures—particularly from energy—limit that flexibility.
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At the same time, stress is building quickly in credit markets. Tighter financial conditions and higher borrowing costs are starting to expose weaker areas, particularly in private credit and less liquid parts of the market that have relied on steady flows and stable valuations.
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In this environment, the focus shifts toward resilience. Companies with strong balance sheets, pricing power, or direct exposure to energy and infrastructure tend to hold up better—names like Civitas Resources (CIVI) and HF Sinclair (DINO) benefit from higher energy and fuel margins, while Powell Industries (POWL) and Broadcom (AVGO) are supported by infrastructure and long-term demand. More defensive or non-cyclical names such as Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE) and Fidelity National Financial (FNF) also remain relatively insulated.

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Likely to Hold Up Better
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• CIVI (Civitas Resources) — Mid-cap oil producer with strong free cash flow; directly benefits as higher oil prices flow through to revenue and margins
• DINO (HF Sinclair) — Refiner with integrated logistics; rising fuel prices and refining spreads support profitability
• FTAI (FTAI Aviation) — Aircraft leasing and engine services; higher airfares and capacity constraints increase demand for leased aircraft and maintenance
• AVGO (Broadcom) — Strong pricing power and long-term enterprise contracts; less exposed to short-term macro swings
• FNF (Fidelity National Financial) — Fee-based title business with stable cash flows and strong capital position, less sensitive to economic volatility
• COKE (Coca-Cola Consolidated) — Non-discretionary consumer demand with pricing power; can pass through higher input costs
• POWL (Powell Industries) — Electrical infrastructure provider; benefits from continued energy and grid investment regardless of broader slowdown
• VKTX (Viking Therapeutics) — Biotech with no debt and catalyst-driven pipeline; performance less tied to macro conditions
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Tickers Likely to Face Pressure
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• BOWL (Bowlero) — Consumer entertainment with leverage; discretionary spending typically weakens first in slowdowns
• PRCH (Porch Group) — Housing and insurance exposure with a weaker balance sheet; pressured by higher rates and slowing activity
• COOK (Traeger) — Big-ticket discretionary consumer goods; demand already soft and sensitive to tightening conditions
• JOBY (Joby Aviation) — Pre-revenue and cash-burning; dependent on favorable capital markets that are now tightening
• BLND (Blend Labs) — Mortgage tech platform; directly impacted by higher rates and declining housing volumes
• XPOF (Xponential Fitness) — Subscription-based fitness model; consumers cut recurring expenses as budgets tighten
• RELY (Remitly) — Tied to cross-border consumer flows; sensitive to labor market softening

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