Trump’s trade offensive escalated sharply: China now faces tariffs as high as 245%, with added penalties tied to fentanyl enforcement and Section 301 retaliation. Simultaneously, over 75 countries were granted exemptions—a not-so-subtle signal that America’s true target is Beijing. The White House invoked Section 232 to probe national security risks tied to mineral imports, laying groundwork for a strategic decoupling from China in key defense and tech inputs. In response, China halted exports of six heavy rare earths critical to aerospace and semiconductors. Trump insisted Chinese officials were “reaching out” for talks but hinted tariffs might remain high to force global realignment. Trump's goal isn’t just a trade win—it’s geopolitical isolation of China. Supply chains are fragmenting, and a new global bloc formation is quietly underway.

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Exemptions, Escalation, and the 'Choose Your Camp' Doctrine
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This week’s selective tariff carve-outs aren’t a pause—they’re a pivot. Trump spared dozens of countries from blanket duties, dangling market access in exchange for loyalty. China, however, got no relief. The message? Align with U.S. industrial policy or face exclusion. The administration is leveraging tariff waivers as diplomatic tools—even tying trade terms to unrelated issues like TikTok’s divestiture. Beijing pushed back hard: state media blasted Washington’s “economic coercion,” and Xi Jinping launched a charm offensive across Southeast Asia to keep neighbors from flipping. But even friendly nations like Vietnam are hedging—cutting deals with D.C. while carefully managing ties with Beijing. The global economy is no longer sorting by efficiency—it’s sorting by allegiance. This isn’t decoupling. It’s enforced alignment.

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