But beneath the volatility lies intent. Trump’s tariffs aren’t the destination—they’re the opening move. Like a chess player sacrificing material for position, the administration is using economic shock as leverage. The real play? A new round of dealmaking on U.S. terms.
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Every outsized tariff—however chaotic—is a signal: “Call us. Let’s talk.” And many already have. Cambodia, slammed with a 49% tariff, has pledged to lower its own tariffs to jumpstart negotiations. Vietnam, facing a 46% levy, is actively seeking a deal to preserve its status as a key export hub. Even Canada, after retaliating with a 25% auto tariff, has left the door open to back-channel talks. Other U.S. allies like Australia, Japan, India, Indonesia, and Taiwan have notably refrained from retaliating, opting instead for diplomacy. Only China has taken a hardline stance, launching tit-for-tat tariffs in what many analysts see as a face-saving measure rather than a true strategic response.
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By manufacturing uncertainty and tightening liquidity, Trump is drawing foreign capital into Treasuries, cooling inflation without the Fed’s help. Meanwhile, tariffs raise revenue, create negotiating leverage, and force trade partners to the table. Trump isn’t chasing autarky—he’s setting the terms for a global reset. And unlike the 2018 trade war, this isn’t about one-off concessions. This is about writing a new playbook: rebalance trade, restore U.S. industrial policy, and restructure capital flows—one bilateral deal at a time.

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