How U.S. energy policy, BRICS tensions, and oil supply chains are reshaping global power dynamics
Sectors & Industries
March 16, 2026
Table of Contents
Last week’s newsletter argued that several geopolitical events unfolding at once were not random crises, but part of a broader strategic sequence shaping global energy flows and economic leverage.
The core theme was simple: U.S. policy increasingly appears focused on securing energy supply chains, strengthening access to critical resources, and protecting the dollar’s role in global trade.
When viewed together, developments that are often discussed separately — pressure on Venezuela, tighter North American energy alignment, growing focus on Greenland’s resources, confrontation with Iran, and Russia’s role in global oil markets — begin to look like different pieces of the same strategic puzzle.
Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves along with major deposits of lithium, gold, and rare earth minerals.
For years, China has relied heavily on discounted Venezuelan crude, importing hundreds of thousands of barrels per day through shadow shipping networks designed to bypass Western sanctions.
Pressure on Venezuela therefore does more than reshape the country’s political leadership. It weakens one of China’s alternative energy supply channels outside Western financial systems.
While Venezuela represents pressure abroad, Canada represents consolidation at home.
Canada possesses the world’s third-largest oil reserves along with vast mineral deposits and expanding Arctic shipping routes.
Closer economic and energy alignment between the United States and Canada effectively creates a continental energy and resource bloc combining:
That integrated base gives the West a strategic resource advantage few competitors can replicate.
Greenland’s role in the sequence is about strategic geography and future resource control.
The island contains major deposits of rare earth elements, uranium, graphite, titanium, and other minerals critical for defense systems, energy infrastructure, and advanced manufacturing.
As Arctic shipping routes open and geopolitical competition intensifies, expanding U.S. influence over Greenland helps ensure those resources remain aligned with Western supply chains rather than falling under Chinese or Russian control.
If Venezuelan supply tightens, China’s next major source of discounted crude becomes Iran.
China buys the majority of Iranian oil exports through intermediaries and sanctions-evasion shipping networks, often at below-market prices. That relationship has been a key pillar of Beijing’s energy strategy, providing discounted supply outside Western financial systems.
The current escalation now threatens that flow — especially because the Strait of Hormuz normally carries about 20% of global oil shipments.
But Iran is also attempting to use the chokepoint as financial leverage. Tehran has signaled it may allow limited tanker traffic through the strait only if the cargo is traded in Chinese yuan rather than U.S. dollars.
If implemented, that would effectively tie limited access to Hormuz to yuan-denominated oil trade, challenging the dollar-based system that has long governed global energy markets.
That detail ties the conflict directly into a broader issue President Trump repeatedly emphasized: countering efforts by BRICS countries to weaken the dollar’s role in global commerce.
Russia has become one of the largest providers of discounted crude to China and India since Western sanctions reshaped global energy markets.
But recent developments suggest Washington may be trying to reshape that relationship rather than simply isolate Moscow indefinitely.
This week the United States issued a 30-day waiver allowing purchases of Russian oil currently stranded at sea, potentially affecting around 100 million barrels of crude.
The move is partly aimed at stabilizing markets after the Iran conflict disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
But it also reflects a longer-term possibility: gradually reintegrating Russian energy into global markets in ways that reduce China’s privileged access to discounted supply.
If Russian barrels return more broadly to global markets instead of flowing primarily to Asia, Beijing loses one of its most important sources of cheap energy.
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