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What We Learned: AI Is Real — So Are Valuation Risks

With AI powering $100B+ in investment, markets now face the question: how much optimism is already priced in?

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There’s no question anymore about whether AI is real or meaningful.

The data is undeniable:

  • AI now powers $109B in private U.S. investment
  • There are 400+ AI unicorns globally
  • 71% of enterprises are already using AI in core functions
  • 89% of small businesses now rely on AI tools
  • The global AI market is on pace to reach $826.7B by 2030

The issue isn’t whether AI delivers impact — it clearly does.

The question now is how much is already “priced in”:

  • Just 10 stocks (Mag 7 + PLTR, ORCL, AVGO) drove 80% of S&P 500 gains this year
  • AI-linked names now account for a record share of future GDP expectations
  • Their valuations assume smooth scaling, perfect execution, and constant capital access

That’s the backdrop for Michael Burry’s move: large put positions against Nvidia and Palantir. Not because he doubts AI itself — but likely because markets may be acting like nothing can go wrong.

It's not about AI being a bubble — it’s about valuations expecting a future with zero friction.

Which raises the real question:

What happens when AI’s exponential growth hits real-world constraints — whether that’s economic strain, political pressure, or physical limits?

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